NBA · resolved market
Will Jayson Tatum win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x311c2e45aabbe6396cb0d08fd27440d0efe4dd5c6e396340f7e0ed812258cba2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $679,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $168,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $679,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 0c | 76,451$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 64,447$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 197 | 8.6%17 W · 180 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…3bd3backed Yes | 0c | 49,503$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.67 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfef7…f62dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,482$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 4c | 8,351$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.88 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd695…850ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,837$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,740$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 213 | 0.5%1 W · 212 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd298…42aebacked Yes | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,770$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.57 | 350 | 46%161 W · 189 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadf3…77bdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes | 6c | 1,200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…7019backed Yes | 4c | 1,050$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fc…1fa7backed Yes | 4c | 982$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 953.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 61 | 13.1%8 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2e…7f81backed Yes | 3c | 897$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8c…6c80backed Yes | 3c | 815$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da7…5081backed Yes | 3c | 811$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa428…d386backed Yes | 4c | 799$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea6…8729backed Yes | 4c | 797$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb598…d81dbacked Yes | 3c | 792$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 2c | 783.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 245 | 49%120 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd76…24d3backed Yes | 4c | 764$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 3c | 752.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4433…ab7abacked Yes | 3c | 751$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x818d…26edbacked Yes | 3c | 741$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50da…ba13backed Yes | 4c | 738$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7683…49eabacked Yes | 4c | 721$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb44…967fbacked Yes | 4c | 704$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ad…0211backed Yes | 4c | 701$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e6…3785backed Yes | 4c | 660$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x990f…7f11backed Yes | 15c | 656.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…ab8bbacked Yes | 4c | 651$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 611.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…fd3ebacked Yes | 3c | 593$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…9203backed Yes | 4c | 588$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd02a…f167backed Yes | 2c | 555$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…1569backed Yes | 3c | 548$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8b…eb33backed Yes | 4c | 520$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…abc9backed Yes | 4c | 514$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e4…f086backed Yes | 4c | 510$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…1544backed Yes | 3c | 486$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 21c | 466.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda4c…23f2backed Yes | 4c | 455$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f43…0ae8backed Yes | 2c | 448$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ab…0f31backed Yes | 3c | 444$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd4…6f92backed Yes | 3c | 426$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3e…7eadbacked Yes | 3c | 424$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…b6fdbacked Yes | 4c | 411$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…22fabacked Yes | 4c | 402$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 4c | 394.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 58 | 6.9%4 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…1a66backed Yes | 4c | 389$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6f…dda9backed Yes | 4c | 387$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Yes | 14c | 371.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…5316backed Yes | 4c | 369$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d32…c613backed Yes | 3c | 368$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0051…5016backed Yes | 4c | 363$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…58e7backed Yes | 4c | 362$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…ef10backed Yes | 4c | 304$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4c…aca0backed Yes | 4c | 302$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf96f…9e36backed Yes | 18c | 274.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd464…db84backed Yes | 4c | 234$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 76c | 226.5$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd085…ba5cbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jayson Tatum win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?this page
- Will Anthony Davis win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Anthony Edwards win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Devin Booker win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Ja Morant win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Jalen Brunson win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Joel Embiid win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Kevin Durant win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will LeBron James win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Luka Doncic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?Yes won
- Will Stephen Curry win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Trae Young win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
- Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.