TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x112a…d900

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
31
Categories scored
4
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: NBA, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 52 out of 100; worst Movies at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT2437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$41
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$32.92
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$23
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$151.14
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$102.06
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$43.78
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$29.65
Thunder vs. Timberwolvesbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.3
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$103.5
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$63
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.36
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$26.86
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$26
Celtics vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$38.06
Thunder vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$116.55
Warriors vs. Timberwolvesbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.6
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$39
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Pacers vs. Cavaliersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT+270.4%+$73
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
Lakers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.37
All 24 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Aug 30, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaevbacked Du Plessis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.