Premier League · resolved market
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-01-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebdbc8c7e5ff63f77b75d0ae087902b91a238b5751770cfc4f81da5ea58fa092
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 19c | 4,693$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.91 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed No | 66c | 3,022$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.21 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 19c | 3,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 414 | 37.9%157 W · 257 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 33c | 1,920$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.57 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 43c | 1,294$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b3…246abacked No | 57c | 1,188$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.96 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…09cbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 449 | 39.6%178 W · 271 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 64c | 884.61$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.67 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aac…46a0backed Yes | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 256 | 37.9%97 W · 159 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eae…f263backed Yes | 18c | 640.48$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…7493backed Yes | 37c | 617.02$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Yes | 17c | 614.27$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.71 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…d402backed Yes | 12c | 571.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe980…75e1backed No | 79c | 505.6$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 69cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb680…c893backed Yes | 34c | 499.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a31…fed2backed Yes | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 5c | 429.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 37c | 404.63$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.71 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 392.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 80c | 387.2$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.1 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5679…d458backed Yes | 20c | 375$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed No | 71c | 322.68$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5a…fa77backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 9c | 267.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 22c | 260.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 327 | 36.4%119 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 20c | 245.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…515fbacked Yes | 18c | 240.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9c…d01bbacked No | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 28c | 233.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 20c | 221.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7683…d93fbacked Yes | 43c | 200.5$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd92…9e72backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a6…f9ddbacked Yes | 19c | 184.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb586…7f97backed Yes | 19c | 157.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae6…01febacked Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…c63abacked Yes | 13c | 156.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee9d…63e1backed Yes | 20c | 151.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65dc…0b11backed Yes | 13c | 138.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Yes | 37c | 130$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…4c9fbacked Yes | 12c | 125.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2e…f1c7backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…1c10backed No | 63c | 111.54$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7d…55f3backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cd…9973backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -9.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…a865backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa610…0461backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a6…38c0backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…3286backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…c3f5backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…35b1backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…0735backed No | 58c | 99.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…2683backed No | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc269…927dbacked Yes | 41c | 86.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba99…8f26backed Yes | 18c | 83.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x065f…ab50backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3947…b31ebacked Yes | 20c | 78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4890…0968backed No | 64c | 76.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…d871backed Yes | 22c | 69.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…66a7backed Yes | 19c | 68.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4782…6435backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3310…f248backed Yes | 18c | 58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…25d2backed Yes | 44c | 56.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…1c77backed Yes | 19c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55cb…85b8backed Yes | 19c | 53.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…f9c5backed No | 80c | 50.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…3607backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb018…8891backed Yes | 41c | 48.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 32c | 39.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 697 | 72.6%506 W · 191 L | +83.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c0…4328backed No | 56c | 37.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc6…4ddebacked No | 64c | 31.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb17…13fabacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-01-14?this page
- Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-14?No won
- Will Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.