TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Du Plessis vs. Adesanya

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Du Plessisof Du Plessis, Adesanya
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$140,715
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$139,677

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,715 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x741e…2f80backed Adesanya52c56,656$29,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,298.52966.7%6 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aaa…77b7backed Du Plessis50c20,234$10,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,205.842147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a12…01cebacked Du Plessis48c13,269$6,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,9651457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd314…2859backed Du Plessis48c12,471$6,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,438.71353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09af…d337backed Du Plessis48c11,500$5,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,9804100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+120.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2bb0…d415backed Adesanya52c7,000$3,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,628.92333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+43.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a14…0762backed Du Plessis48c6,821$3,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,556.751457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x189a…7a56backed Du Plessis48c5,610$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,909.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Adesanya50c5,100$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,550.011250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x714f…64c5backed Adesanya51c4,833$2,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,465.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc345…dd9abacked Adesanya51c3,899$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,001.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Adesanya50c3,458$1,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,729.057853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed Du Plessis50c2,940$1,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,476.742751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb49…97a0backed Adesanya52c2,686$1,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.55250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12af…0cbdbacked Adesanya55c2,065$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a20…101cbacked Adesanya5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+233.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2743…8e7bbacked Du Plessis51c1,954$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Adesanya50c1,940$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9705435.2%19 W · 35 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked Adesanya52c1,924$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.48728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Adesanya50c1,806$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.88140.7%33 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0894…79a2backed Adesanya52c1,667$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae43…5701backed Du Plessis50c1,531$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.79650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Du Plessis49c1,500$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.996050%30 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Du Plessis48c1,347$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.22966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+53.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Du Plessis51c1,296$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.66837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Adesanya4c1,216$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.137233.3%24 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Du Plessis49c1,206$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.884934.7%17 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Du Plessis47c1,041$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.8721554.4%117 W · 98 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db1…8e4ebacked Adesanya50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e84…4b92backed Adesanya51c1,000$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Du Plessis49c999.98$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.99771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9212…2ff6backed Du Plessis51c987.55$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.242470.8%17 W · 7 L+5.7wins+0.24per pick47cpaid+81.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x58fa…5a5abacked Adesanya52c961.91$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.57742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+59.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bae…14adbacked Adesanya51c920.39$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Adesanya50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40025251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…6e8ebacked Adesanya50c749.08$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.544143.9%18 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb81…92dfbacked Du Plessis50c622.32$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc439…3aabbacked Du Plessis50c618.32$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bda…9b11backed Adesanya51c608.16$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe93f…1782backed Du Plessis51c600.79$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick29cpaid+60.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77cf…0e71backed Du Plessis49c599.97$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08fa…a865backed Du Plessis51c501.14$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c39…9729backed Adesanya52c501.02$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Du Plessis48c499.98$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.993557.1%20 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb898…6429backed Adesanya52c493.48$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1285…6a2fbacked Du Plessis49c479.27$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.433100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e91…b801backed Du Plessis50c460$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e6…696bbacked Adesanya53c434$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.02633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09cb…218ebacked Du Plessis50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001250%6 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+45.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x02a5…5c5cbacked Du Plessis50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd0c…3a82backed Adesanya50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf2…fcb5backed Adesanya51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe28a…8072backed Adesanya50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3617…aa10backed Du Plessis51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…af29backed Du Plessis50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+45.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc64…fc2bbacked Adesanya52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008752.9%46 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd9…1095backed Adesanya50c382.66$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.531338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-37.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed Adesanya50c367.6$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.8742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65e3…a7cdbacked Du Plessis50c360$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1801100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…eb7ebacked Du Plessis50c349.4$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Du Plessis53c320.54$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.651850%9 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8be0…df54backed Adesanya51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb72…73aabacked Du Plessis50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb718…fce3backed Adesanya51c298.04$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5167…ccefbacked Du Plessis51c297.55$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4992…5b51backed Adesanya53c283.02$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502568%17 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+53.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1736…df37backed Du Plessis44c250$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+126.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Du Plessis48c221.9$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.3923850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb24…efc2backed Du Plessis50c214.19$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f35…eb5ebacked Adesanya47c210.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.55425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd50e…773ebacked Adesanya50c202.44$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40d5…acd1backed Adesanya51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb984…2a41backed Adesanya50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32de…7827backed Du Plessis51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0328…d834backed Adesanya50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x940d…5a03backed Adesanya50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Adesanya50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f08…a742backed Du Plessis50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37ec…eaacbacked Adesanya51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6990…075bbacked Adesanya51c196.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+117.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49de…4dc5backed Du Plessis51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.08666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49b6…bd14backed Du Plessis51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0458…4f41backed Adesanya51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bc1…874dbacked Adesanya51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39b0…2b37backed Du Plessis51c194.31$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2ab…b760backed Adesanya51c194.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x344d…1278backed Du Plessis52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Du Plessis49c190.9$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.363661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.7wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6a1…3581backed Adesanya52c182.68$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.13922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.26per pick48cpaid-57.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb295…3a9fbacked Adesanya52c180.96$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.13135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.9wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-33.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9199…1f01backed Adesanya52c172.41$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd757…d6d2backed Adesanya51c160.75$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x024f…2ec0backed Du Plessis51c158$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.42850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8d7…7ad5backed Adesanya51c153$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.031560%9 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc7…7ca8backed Du Plessis49c150$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.5560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec4…0638backed Adesanya51c137.25$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc28c…54e1backed Adesanya51c129.41$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Du Plessis51c124.51$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.72955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4724…215dbacked Du Plessis41c119.98$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad67…a975backed Adesanya38c114.05$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0450%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.