UFC · resolved market
Tuivasa vs. Rozenstruik
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf481f668ea4d4821d7215588086b1097ab0371727c0f2125caa4d1bbf5e0940a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rozenstruikof Tuivasa, Rozenstruik
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x741e…2f80backed Rozenstruik | 69c | 12,124$8,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,778.15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Tuivasa | 31c | 10,000$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Tuivasa | 1c | 7,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Tuivasa | 16c | 5,065$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.96 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Rozenstruik | 66c | 2,712$1,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.87 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…43e8backed Tuivasa | 35c | 2,632$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…abbabacked Tuivasa | 33c | 2,239$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Tuivasa | 34c | 1,016$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.94 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Tuivasa | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x031b…e92bbacked Rozenstruik | 67c | 970.22$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…9729backed Rozenstruik | 67c | 733.75$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Rozenstruik | 66c | 540$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1785…b782backed Tuivasa | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db1…8e4ebacked Tuivasa | 34c | 441.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Tuivasa | 32c | 408$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70c…07a4backed Tuivasa | 8c | 310$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +159.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Rozenstruik | 64c | 304.96$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.74 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8590…57d6backed Tuivasa | 36c | 281.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Rozenstruik | 63c | 250.04$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.51 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…3b80backed Tuivasa | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…9ca3backed Tuivasa | 27c | 218.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Rozenstruik | 66c | 179.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Tuivasa | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc7…7ca8backed Rozenstruik | 65c | 149.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…c835backed Rozenstruik | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Tuivasa | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfd…e025backed Rozenstruik | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Tuivasa | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Tuivasa | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f08…a742backed Tuivasa | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…2ec0backed Tuivasa | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…a975backed Tuivasa | 31c | 90.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…9236backed Tuivasa | 34c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb1…a25cbacked Tuivasa | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Tuivasa | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a1…3581backed Rozenstruik | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…3a9fbacked Rozenstruik | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Rozenstruik | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed Tuivasa | 32c | 68.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1459…ab65backed Tuivasa | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccf…7afbbacked Tuivasa | 33c | 54.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c05…fc5ebacked Rozenstruik | 68c | 52.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…228bbacked Rozenstruik | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a91…b6f0backed Tuivasa | 32c | 46.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Rozenstruik | 64c | 46.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…773fbacked Rozenstruik | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -5.5wins | -0.39per pick | 60cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5e84…4b92backed Tuivasa | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Tuivasa | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Rozenstruik | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…5120backed Tuivasa | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3178…277dbacked Tuivasa | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 44cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3b…ffcebacked Rozenstruik | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…c5d7backed Rozenstruik | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…9dfebacked Rozenstruik | 67c | 23.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…1983backed Rozenstruik | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tuivasa vs. Rozenstruikthis page
- Du Plessis vs. AdesanyaDu Plessis won
- Gamrot vs. HookerHooker won
- Jingliang vs. PratesPrates won
- Kara-France vs. ErcegKara-France won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.