UFC · resolved market
Kara-France vs. Erceg
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf716565a832e4635c0acb6d0dbf8c9df1202962d2cedb770afb00028fe833f37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kara-Franceof Kara-France, Erceg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Erceg | 1c | 16,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Erceg | 1c | 7,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Kara-France | 38c | 2,450$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.45 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x191d…99abbacked Erceg | 63c | 2,222$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…c932backed Erceg | 60c | 1,061$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Erceg | 2c | 899$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f08…a742backed Erceg | 67c | 600$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Kara-France | 28c | 510.44$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.8 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Kara-France | 37c | 456.43$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Erceg | 65c | 411.43$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.43 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Erceg | 67c | 409.72$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.02 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Kara-France | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f91…dd16backed Kara-France | 31c | 159.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.19 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +65%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…696bbacked Kara-France | 32c | 157.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc7…7ca8backed Erceg | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Erceg | 71c | 146.43$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.63 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Erceg | 69c | 144.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe93f…1782backed Kara-France | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Erceg | 62c | 130.84$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Kara-France | 29c | 121.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Kara-France | 28c | 119$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x741e…2f80backed Erceg | 70c | 116.67$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaf…5cfdbacked Kara-France | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a91…b6f0backed Kara-France | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe5…f089backed Kara-France | 31c | 95.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…40dcbacked Kara-France | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb1…a25cbacked Kara-France | 32c | 74.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d7…7ad5backed Erceg | 70c | 72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Kara-France | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…3a9fbacked Erceg | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a1…3581backed Erceg | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…a975backed Erceg | 61c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Kara-France | 30c | 59.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccf…7afbbacked Kara-France | 32c | 55.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…0773backed Erceg | 75c | 53.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…228bbacked Kara-France | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1459…ab65backed Erceg | 63c | 46.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…0638backed Kara-France | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1239…3cebbacked Erceg | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Erceg | 66c | 37.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…70cebacked Erceg | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Erceg | 71c | 29.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…5120backed Erceg | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Erceg | 57c | 26.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…c2f0backed Erceg | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5adb…42dbbacked Kara-France | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…85d9backed Erceg | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kara-France vs. Ercegthis page
- Du Plessis vs. AdesanyaDu Plessis won
- Gamrot vs. HookerHooker won
- Jingliang vs. PratesPrates won
- Tuivasa vs. RozenstruikRozenstruik won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.