UFC · resolved market
Jingliang vs. Prates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x420d18450744b600691ef67a7751271823b4251d6b1d02b607d7079a74e1dac7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pratesof Jingliang, Prates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacf7…a694backed Jingliang | 28c | 4,267$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Prates | 74c | 3,035$2,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.16 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd314…2859backed Prates | 71c | 1,457$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.87 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…25b0backed Prates | 76c | 1,450$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Prates | 72c | 1,176$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Jingliang | 25c | 1,166$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.5 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Prates | 76c | 1,092$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.06 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Jingliang | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db1…8e4ebacked Jingliang | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Prates | 75c | 784.72$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb0…d415backed Jingliang | 26c | 500$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162d…0695backed Jingliang | 25c | 401.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…696bbacked Jingliang | 31c | 326$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4437…503ebacked Prates | 76c | 181$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Prates | 72c | 152.33$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc7…7ca8backed Prates | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Jingliang | 18c | 147.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…a975backed Jingliang | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…9dfebacked Prates | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Prates | 76c | 71.02$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…c835backed Prates | 79c | 67.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…9236backed Jingliang | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Prates | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed Prates | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…70cebacked Jingliang | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…6ab3backed Prates | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Prates | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Prates | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Prates | 72c | 19.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…c5d7backed Prates | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…1983backed Prates | 76c | 17.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce84…304cbacked Prates | 76c | 15.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jingliang vs. Pratesthis page
- Du Plessis vs. AdesanyaDu Plessis won
- Gamrot vs. HookerHooker won
- Kara-France vs. ErcegKara-France won
- Tuivasa vs. RozenstruikRozenstruik won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.