Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb7ee3ad61a274378ba77b3d841f465bf60375127004852a13c94f8aa7e25d5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed No | 53c | 4,800$2,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,543 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…b2a9backed Yes | 50c | 3,596$1,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,797.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 53c | 3,136$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.6 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…75debacked No | 50c | 2,144$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 49c | 1,794$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.7 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 37c | 1,643$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.42 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 57c | 1,587$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.33 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 52c | 1,533$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.69 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…463dbacked Yes | 57c | 1,448$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc39…f522backed No | 50c | 1,405$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…043ebacked No | 49c | 1,339$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.82 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5e…1a97backed No | 50c | 1,220$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1836…9456backed Yes | 50c | 1,174$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5665…32cdbacked No | 69c | 1,116$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.83 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 53c | 1,096$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.45 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1055…22e5backed No | 51c | 982.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 55c | 856.64$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.91 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 67c | 847.93$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.97 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…e3e1backed Yes | 46c | 776$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed No | 51c | 770.35$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.35 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked Yes | 39c | 737.99$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.16 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 54c | 695.87$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.59 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 51c | 676.31$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.67 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes | 41c | 640.07$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.51 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 63c | 571.13$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.91 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1d…a1e3backed Yes | 42c | 569.3$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc8…ce3ebacked Yes | 55c | 500.95$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 37c | 402.57$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.29 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 30c | 395$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked Yes | 38c | 320$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.03 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 57c | 305.47$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.13 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 48c | 301$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.31 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9728…0314backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 54c | 293$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.38 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 40c | 288$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.22 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…1ac1backed No | 61c | 285.38$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.74 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x101d…f468backed Yes | 24c | 283.83$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +319.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a65…83eebacked No | 20c | 279.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 64c | 273.84$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.39 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7af…1e9fbacked Yes | 41c | 256.1$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 38c | 255.24$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.24 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc13a…b7a9backed Yes | 41c | 255.15$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 57c | 230.5$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.65 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 41c | 217$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.89 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 53c | 208.21$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…02adbacked No | 50c | 202.5$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.9 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked No | 60c | 200.2$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.2 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7768…495cbacked No | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa854…3856backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…fa42backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 46c | 193.13$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.84 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 34c | 191.4$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.62 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…8b10backed Yes | 51c | 189.16$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 42c | 182.81$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.39 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed Yes | 30c | 177.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.99 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fd…4bf8backed No | 45c | 176.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.49 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 40c | 171.3$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.19 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 42c | 169.18$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.47 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 58c | 162.31$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.83 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Yes | 48c | 160.7$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.07 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…a865backed Yes | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked Yes | 51c | 147.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 141.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 53c | 140$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c30…7673backed No | 63c | 130$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed Yes | 44c | 124.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd761…cd8fbacked Yes | 49c | 123.14$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 39c | 121$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.95 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…b4f1backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf755…f0eebacked Yes | 62c | 120$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…43dabacked Yes | 51c | 102.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 101.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.29 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…422cbacked Yes | 40c | 100.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…8c95backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…d057backed No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 57c | 97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…b716backed Yes | 44c | 97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +240.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 48c | 96.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed Yes | 38c | 88.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 53c | 88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…d4eebacked Yes | 31c | 88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80bb…bd9abacked No | 67c | 86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 37c | 81.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…c84dbacked No | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 76.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 61c | 74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 38c | 72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 64c | 70.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 50c | 70.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 46c | 66.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 49c | 64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 49c | 54.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…36c7backed Yes | 53c | 54.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…37d5backed Yes | 38c | 52.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 71c | 51.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb53…e7fcbacked Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7bb…0fd6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of January?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of January?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $140 end of January?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of January?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of January?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of January?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of January?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 end of January?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 end of January?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 end of January?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of January?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of January?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $250 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.