Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd322a3a78b303917244a19e2609e73ca1713d0267f7d901510cd31973af65cb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 14c | 2,660$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.16 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 15c | 1,250$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.67 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…cf16backed No | 12c | 1,019$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed No | 9c | 919.79$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.91 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 15c | 858.86$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.69 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…217cbacked No | 21c | 823.22$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.43 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 17c | 808.85$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.38 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd86c…d09abacked No | 13c | 793.35$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed No | 13c | 700$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b21…dbf8backed No | 5c | 528.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1811…789dbacked No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79d…369dbacked No | 12c | 499.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa854…3856backed No | 16c | 480$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 13c | 456.34$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 442.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 16c | 423.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 8c | 394.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed No | 12c | 383$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…77b1backed No | 31c | 321.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeaf…d947backed No | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 10c | 266.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 259.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 79c | 218.64$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e64…66f1backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked No | 12c | 189$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1d…95debacked No | 13c | 183.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b0…c637backed No | 8c | 182.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 13c | 181.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 15c | 174.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 14c | 163.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3e…f805backed No | 7c | 161.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9378…8672backed No | 8c | 137.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 79c | 131$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…2ddabacked No | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0e…85c6backed No | 14c | 120.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 18c | 117.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 13c | 108.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2414…22d6backed No | 10c | 104$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…2df8backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 16c | 97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 96.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 13c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…5dbdbacked No | 20c | 71.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed No | 16c | 61.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb4…7e8dbacked No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…2e6ebacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 80c | 17.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of January?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of January?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $140 end of January?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of January?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of January?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of January?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of January?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 end of January?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 end of January?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 end of January?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of January?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of January?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $250 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.