Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd111f96e9e6494b077a1d02aec6fc9d8fdb09540f3d090d3a0474eba81614e08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 75c | 1,264$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.53 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 19c | 1,249$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.2 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…f8bbbacked Yes | 32c | 1,137$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.33 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a65…83eebacked Yes | 2c | 931.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 73c | 900.06$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.67 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 818.77$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 76c | 598.84$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.29 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…217cbacked No | 69c | 595$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.9 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5665…32cdbacked No | 75c | 593.23$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.74 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…bf3dbacked Yes | 28c | 550$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 512.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9728…0314backed Yes | 6c | 449.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b3…2763backed Yes | 24c | 431.89$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.29 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…6198backed Yes | 30c | 332.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 7c | 311.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1288…dac9backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e8…fe94backed Yes | 6c | 259.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…37d5backed Yes | 12c | 250.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ab…08f3backed Yes | 22c | 246.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 20c | 209.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8588…c3dcbacked Yes | 7c | 208.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 8c | 205.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a6…c09ebacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…73e6backed Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7c…b179backed Yes | 9c | 180.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 15c | 180$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5eb…b51cbacked Yes | 7c | 153.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…b70bbacked No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +167.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1d…95debacked No | 72c | 139.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 77c | 137.95$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 68c | 130$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 15c | 112.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…c9d2backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 94.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 73.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 169 | 49.1%83 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…02adbacked No | 63c | 62.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 69c | 59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 27c | 50.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed No | 70c | 47.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7866…8645backed Yes | 27c | 42.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd085…e963backed No | 76c | 38.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 21.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 end of January?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of January?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $140 end of January?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of January?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of January?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of January?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of January?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of January?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 end of January?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 end of January?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of January?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of January?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $250 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.