TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$88,063
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,526

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,063 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1461…30a1backed No43c3,723$1,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,605.05837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x969f…4d55backed Yes71c2,873$2,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.741,11143.7%486 W · 625 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8bd…463dbacked Yes79c2,508$1,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.67742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick67cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed No29c2,400$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.819324.7%23 W · 70 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0923…bd50backed No43c2,300$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed No26c2,030$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.381216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No34c1,777$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.7856548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…d20ebacked No28c1,628$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.063129%9 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-45.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No30c1,581$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.5360229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda9d…226cbacked No22c1,568$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764a…9747backed Yes57c1,274$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.691275%9 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f85…8693backed No49c1,196$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.6540%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed No28c1,172$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.345639.3%22 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x622f…9992backed No33c1,020$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.5710442.3%44 W · 60 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca28…2f7cbacked No33c1,019$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.383423.5%8 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-44.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5813…b100backed Yes68c982.95$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes68c981.76$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.896361.9%39 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bc4…4f77backed No19c963.35$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ab…97a4backed Yes74c941.9$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.123100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+182.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x80bb…bd9abacked No26c889$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.1430%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed No22c872.75$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.282119%4 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-62.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes64c860.81$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.54934.7%17 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f06…475cbacked No5c817.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51b8…cf16backed No41c782.88$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.461020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-63.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked No42c773.59$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.012254.5%12 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe02c…5d08backed Yes69c714.37$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.31771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes65c671.33$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.3199038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x336f…c31ebacked No29c654.33$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.643737.8%14 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73ac…217cbacked No35c650$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.054238.1%16 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa031…fa4bbacked Yes67c622$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad23…7acfbacked No47c583.69$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.13333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+122.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1755…5aacbacked No14c569.2$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.171,32646.9%622 W · 704 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x009e…47e6backed No34c564.63$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1811…789dbacked No16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No35c482.07$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.4222129%64 W · 157 L-14.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed No22c444$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.387726%20 W · 57 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-52.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfdc…a810backed Yes72c434$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe10c…89fcbacked Yes68c431$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No28c429.24$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.2451927.6%143 W · 376 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9a2…4294backed No35c413$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No24c407.56$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4817049.4%84 W · 86 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda64…e3e1backed Yes69c388$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+80.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No24c373.75$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.641,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe438…a607backed No40c360.57$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.5330%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fc6…4690backed No16c357.53$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.58825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked No28c351.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-62.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…043ebacked No7c350$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252814.3%4 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-69.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No32c326.89$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.7281240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No34c323.71$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.499026.7%24 W · 66 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-35.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes61c318$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.5612360.2%74 W · 49 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+9.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No3c307.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.224168.7%36 W · 380 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes66c300$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick55cpaid-50.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3957…c483backed Yes66c297$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5acd…c079backed Yes72c286$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.08475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32c4…d7ecbacked No18c282.21$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7734839.1%136 W · 212 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa78…f40bbacked No30c268.61$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4913751.1%70 W · 67 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe581…77b1backed No5c261.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6c…a568backed Yes68c258.61$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.764245.2%19 W · 23 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes64c247.37$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.432544%11 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee98…113dbacked No22c246.92$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick51cpaid-72%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd86c…d09abacked No20c246.5$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3130%0 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No45c240$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.515947.8%76 W · 83 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No34c235$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.943838.8%170 W · 268 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24da…4099backed Yes76c227.5$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed No30c217.78$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8748234%164 W · 318 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes58c212.29$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.8116248.1%78 W · 84 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb905…1640backed Yes63c212$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebb2…c640backed No37c205.41$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764738.3%18 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8682…b50ebacked No15c203.04$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f50…bf87backed Yes49c202.29$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cda…c2d1backed No39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed Yes64c184$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.415628.6%16 W · 40 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No27c179.05$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.92334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-31.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdf4e…51a7backed No15c178$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf944…c249backed Yes12c165.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.321323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+72.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ed1…73e6backed Yes74c162.87$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.691435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc39d…4891backed No18c155.6$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.56263.8%1 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick14cpaid-66.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0212…bd48backed No39c153$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7620…d9f0backed Yes52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbccf…7e79backed Yes67c149$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes76c143.64$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0127429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No30c141.14$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8986338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6137…171ebacked No26c140$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13c0…5d76backed Yes70c140$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+143.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70c0…ef89backed No30c140$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd59b…5160backed Yes71c135.3$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.244100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5630…6ca8backed Yes71c134.66$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No38c131$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2627338.1%104 W · 169 L-19.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3507…afd0backed Yes76c129.76$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.23250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3934…8352backed Yes72c128.3$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-53.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f3…5dbdbacked No47c120.7$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.02185.6%1 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.17per pick23cpaid-90.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa5de…f4a1backed No35c119$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No38c116$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x626f…cdfabacked Yes68c114$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…f3c7backed Yes51c110$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4385…5a83backed No26c106.62$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a19…70e5backed Yes66c106.06$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked No48c105.93$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.855335.8%19 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b8c…d758backed Yes76c103.62$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.87366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf2d…9637backed Yes74c102.46$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.