Chess · resolved market
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Samuel Sevian vs Lorenzo Lodici (Advances)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8215ba7e5746f1861d9e69cf46da922085a63ff91874d851e75af725b57f540c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sevianof Sevian, Lodici
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Lodici | 21c | 1,112$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.61 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Sevian | 60c | 983$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.2 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Lodici | 2c | 935.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…01a8backed Lodici | 35c | 283.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Sevian | 67c | 269.12$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.76 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Lodici | 28c | 260$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed Lodici | 66c | 223.09$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Sevian | 31c | 220$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.6 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Sevian | 66c | 174.7$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked Sevian | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Lodici | 36c | 114$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Sevian | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Sevian | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed Sevian | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe546…9e59backed Sevian | 63c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Sevian | 59c | 78.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Sevian | 65c | 76.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3058…5412backed Lodici | 26c | 75.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…79d4backed Sevian | 60c | 69.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Sevian | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb8…66fdbacked Sevian | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Sevian | 64c | 52.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Sevian | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Sevian | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5d…f334backed Sevian | 68c | 41.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Sevian | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…aeb8backed Sevian | 64c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Sevian | 64c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Sevian | 72c | 27.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…7f8cbacked Sevian | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Sevian | 50c | 23.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…6dd2backed Sevian | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Sevian | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.