Chess · resolved market
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x500b8a79665c06ac5f4b1249ddb151df80172ebf52c8932374e31059a3b60182
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84c2…3a00backed Yes | 37c | 3,271$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 62c | 2,499$1,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.68 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 48c | 1,548$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Yes | 38c | 1,203$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.2 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed No | 53c | 1,012$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.93 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed No | 65c | 965.2$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 53c | 899.59$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.92 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd7…1778backed Yes | 41c | 611.98$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 63c | 459.99$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.36 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 38c | 450.43$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.24 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes | 20c | 350$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33cf…d71bbacked Yes | 33c | 300.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 300$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b3…7ed8backed Yes | 15c | 245.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 198$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes | 45c | 190.55$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.23 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 59c | 147$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 68c | 116.04$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 60c | 109.68$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 80.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a99…9306backed Yes | 20c | 78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 28c | 76.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…31b1backed Yes | 32c | 72.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…90fabacked Yes | 34c | 58.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe60…6eadbacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 69c | 51.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…549ebacked No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess tournament?this page
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess tournament?No won
- Will Leinier Dominguez win the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess tournament?No won
- Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess tournament?Yes won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess tournament?No won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess tournament?No won
- Will Wesley So win the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.