Chess · resolved market
Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45b704c4765f0c23f4bf76fa2fb123a13a94946248f6f0d51fbb3cf06e6e06a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 56c | 1,558$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.93 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 68c | 1,243$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 40c | 961.18$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.28 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 56c | 920$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.7 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd7…1778backed Yes | 25c | 720.68$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 30c | 434.85$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.89 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked No | 58c | 396.62$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.46 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716a…f358backed No | 78c | 378.69$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…44f2backed No | 9c | 349.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…dd30backed Yes | 38c | 250$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…2030backed No | 28c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked No | 71c | 132.57$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.52 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 37c | 99.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…90fabacked No | 76c | 98.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…6b43backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…549ebacked Yes | 39c | 63.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Yes | 25c | 59.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 28c | 51.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 67c | 43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…28bebacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +156.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 49c | 35.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess tournament?this page
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess tournament?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess tournament?No won
- Will Leinier Dominguez win the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess tournament?No won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess tournament?No won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess tournament?No won
- Will Wesley So win the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.