Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump impose tariffs on Mexico before March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x759b1952d45228a6292726d5fdf628e3b7fa833151cd89e6ecbfbb0b1cfd96c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc212…a125backed Yes | 77c | 4,602$3,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.25 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 8c | 4,214$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.1 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked No | 22c | 2,145$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.5 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -58%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 3c | 2,041$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5063…73bbbacked No | 23c | 1,759$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed No | 24c | 1,535$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.59 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 21c | 1,489$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.5 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 26c | 1,267$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd74e…045dbacked No | 24c | 1,239$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 76c | 1,150$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 25c | 1,128$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.96 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ea31backed No | 20c | 1,112$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 76c | 1,095$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.11 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc280…de71backed No | 7c | 1,003$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b2…447ebacked No | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 77c | 983.26$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.44 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked No | 18c | 839$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.37 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 18c | 763.32$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.07 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 15c | 639.58$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.47 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa8…d94fbacked Yes | 75c | 599.71$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 78c | 595.9$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.6 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf74…6fffbacked Yes | 75c | 533.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 2c | 496.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 17c | 496.17$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.17 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 6c | 495.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 13c | 422.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 4c | 418.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 16c | 393.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd946…bf8cbacked No | 24c | 377.26$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 9c | 373$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed No | 15c | 356.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Yes | 80c | 355.08$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…f0debacked No | 28c | 345.14$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…1a76backed Yes | 68c | 343.75$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…e65abacked No | 15c | 333$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5a…408cbacked No | 16c | 306.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd5…8737backed No | 22c | 204.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked No | 17c | 190.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked No | 26c | 189$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed No | 26c | 186.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 20c | 175$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed No | 22c | 167.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…0e62backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 11c | 116$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…83edbacked No | 18c | 112.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 26c | 102.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 20c | 100.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…7304backed No | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…3300backed Yes | 76c | 78.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e3…0fcdbacked Yes | 75c | 76.59$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…7da5backed Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd653…ba9abacked Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfa…73fcbacked No | 27c | 50.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacc4…2543backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf4…3ad1backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4846…fd83backed No | 27c | 46.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…a149backed No | 25c | 40.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa14d…48bcbacked Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…d308backed Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…85fabacked Yes | 77c | 38.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…14a4backed Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd045…8367backed Yes | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…19a4backed Yes | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…e78bbacked Yes | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…88bebacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd3…263fbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…df50backed Yes | 77c | 19.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…196dbacked Yes | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 73c | 14.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…fa0dbacked Yes | 77c | 13.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.