Chess · resolved market
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Van Nguyen Thai Dai vs Nodirbek Yakubboev (Advances)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x734ad6e59f32b24f5604da953bb73fd3a576c4e6e791437892074f2902d46d72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yakubboevof Dai, Yakubboev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8936…d010backed Dai | 54c | 221$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.6 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Dai | 45c | 141$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Dai | 37c | 125$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yakubboev | 34c | 105$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Dai | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yakubboev | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yakubboev | 32c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yakubboev | 51c | 63.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yakubboev | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yakubboev | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Dai | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6743…4ccbbacked Yakubboev | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed Yakubboev | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.