Chess · resolved market
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa vs Daniil Dubov (Advances)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa787ffb1447164fb31687cc62fd86d099463d85f913bbb37d94f477688acb831
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dubovof Praggnanandhaa, Dubov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd986…1320backed Praggnanandhaa | 57c | 2,778$1,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.06 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Dubov | 42c | 2,618$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Praggnanandhaa | 32c | 625.8$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.4 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd49…6602backed Dubov | 48c | 519.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…01a8backed Dubov | 47c | 412.66$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.66 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Praggnanandhaa | 63c | 348.05$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26e3…0b75backed Praggnanandhaa | 56c | 228.82$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Dubov | 65c | 179$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Praggnanandhaa | 49c | 122.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.57 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21b3…1ddfbacked Praggnanandhaa | 49c | 101.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Dubov | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Praggnanandhaa | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…0cb0backed Praggnanandhaa | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Dubov | 51c | 89.93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Dubov | 53c | 71.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00df…223dbacked Praggnanandhaa | 49c | 65.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Praggnanandhaa | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Dubov | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Praggnanandhaa | 53c | 51.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Praggnanandhaa | 55c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked Praggnanandhaa | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6129…f983backed Praggnanandhaa | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Praggnanandhaa | 47c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…fba5backed Dubov | 52c | 49.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Praggnanandhaa | 31c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf4…b8c4backed Praggnanandhaa | 59c | 46.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Praggnanandhaa | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…3f0bbacked Dubov | 59c | 35.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed Dubov | 45c | 33.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Dubov | 56c | 31.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed Dubov | 53c | 29.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf106…7933backed Dubov | 52c | 26.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Praggnanandhaa | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Praggnanandhaa | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.