TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$206,840
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$237,368

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,840 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ced…12b2backed Yes63c21,000$13,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,716.81136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fa…a4e1backed Yes53c19,977$10,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,389.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x964e…a040backed No47c19,977$9,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,389.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa14b…b944backed Yes56c12,431$6,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,461.461330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No50c11,664$5,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,831.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfda…bedebacked No41c9,572$3,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,924.591770.6%12 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+148.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeb72…8b01backed Yes77c3,899$3,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf40…1bd2backed Yes77c3,000$2,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a8…4673backed No42c2,842$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No48c2,841$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,376.32835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-45.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c2,656$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.531757.4%13 W · 162 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-42.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked No28c2,615$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.269247.8%44 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes59c2,554$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x206a…29eebacked Yes71c2,544$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed No51c2,274$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.243122.6%7 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-63.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc81…0ababacked Yes56c2,007$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No56c1,811$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.566137.7%23 W · 38 L-6.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-26.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes43c1,549$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.781827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-42%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x288a…4275backed Yes59c1,530$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.95944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No59c1,500$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.852030%6 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes45c1,445$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.71050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x705f…3fcfbacked Yes43c1,250$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.49450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0643…7b30backed No5c1,125$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.621010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-60.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes42c1,031$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.592853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4eee…2782backed Yes54c854.46$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.461050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Yes47c748$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.44922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No56c714.28$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid+285.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6d6…f810backed No49c685.38$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.86633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a25…2fa6backed Yes54c574$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.04147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-86.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe87a…6d01backed Yes42c512.95$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.791921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed No43c500$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-79%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9004…6088backed No8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No57c500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick28cpaid-72.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6b6…007dbacked Yes42c471.65$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+25.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed No46c445$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8abb…dbbebacked Yes42c430.55$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Yes56c394.15$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.93520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-64.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Yes59c392$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f67…f9e4backed Yes45c347.85$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.073100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+88%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a5f…cbbfbacked Yes76c300$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x860b…a80fbacked Yes40c294.83$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes37c270.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.27425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x116f…9210backed No40c264.81$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.92616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-64.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39df…644bbacked Yes57c250$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3795…4c73backed No5c229.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.011323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-62.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcbeb…8b88backed No44c221.07$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x958f…7a7dbacked Yes55c220$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.2837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+277.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No45c213.11$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.518732.2%28 W · 59 L-10.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x24d2…92c5backed Yes58c211.75$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.94825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-56%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No60c211$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No63c202.56$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.563531.4%11 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-27.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked No32c185.76$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.014032.5%13 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99f5…dab4backed Yes38c184.21$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb59f…cd73backed Yes38c171.05$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.052236.4%8 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+66.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc0d…3d14backed Yes58c170$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6df…baa2backed Yes48c169.46$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed No45c163.49$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.57767.9%6 W · 70 L-12.3wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-66.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x347a…83e3backed Yes50c162.43$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.71450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No50c161.17$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.922740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed65…b1b2backed No63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-66%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c18…dc3cbacked No39c155.19$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No24c152$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.793414.7%5 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-53.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1eaa…7d99backed No60c140.16$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7440%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2543…4418backed Yes58c138.95$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1481…9e66backed Yes38c134.34$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+164.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x983f…fd5ebacked No55c130$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.96820.6%14 W · 54 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-60.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe7…78f7backed No44c123.98$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05f8…d9bfbacked Yes48c120.3$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.412100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x509b…429dbacked Yes59c119.51$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes36c118.06$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.361656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes45c115.64$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c26…9a9bbacked Yes46c113.32$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaac…685fbacked Yes42c105.38$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.122100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+114.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f4f…a391backed No29c101.07$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c23…b248backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe520…28b0backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466713.4%9 W · 58 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45db…a9bebacked Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb911…a649backed Yes39c97.44$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.44450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7c6…bcf8backed Yes36c94.44$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.44450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b9…c8e4backed Yes39c93.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.62837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…2858backed Yes38c92.27$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.211546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick31cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x42d7…d5ddbacked Yes58c91$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes36c90$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583070%21 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed No37c83.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.95837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-47.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2249…85cabacked Yes38c73.61$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.64475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+40.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac57…f164backed Yes45c68.35$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+120.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa983…a011backed Yes73c67.34$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf088…4942backed Yes68c56.53$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9798…01e0backed Yes39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x795d…63e7backed Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77d2…8cb8backed Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67db…21adbacked Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe886…2f47backed No43c48$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f29…3d27backed Yes38c47.36$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No41c44.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.