Chess · resolved market
Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd9ca1a5ede1b1a185ff893c9fc99fab9cec2abb34c9aab0762aab79917ee573
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x927e…f159backed Yes | 2c | 11,191$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a6…fe39backed Yes | 8c | 3,930$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 5c | 2,623$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Yes | 13c | 2,153$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…7a7dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,844$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +277.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…fee9backed Yes | 11c | 1,802$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 9c | 1,084$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.09 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Yes | 5c | 813.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf535…7c3abacked Yes | 13c | 621.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…3a31backed Yes | 10c | 408.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 11c | 374.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 228.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c26…9a9bbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…bc05backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…21adbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe520…28b0backed Yes | 20c | 153.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 15c | 102.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Dommaraju Gukesh win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Hans Moke Niemann win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?Yes won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Vidit Santosh Gujrathi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will another player win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.