Chess · resolved market
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98c75430c8fdd32f267276d15ecee554bf75adc2f45e061443a8df87d76e07e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Yes | 22c | 13,771$3,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,007.05 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 13c | 10,127$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316.19 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 10c | 8,090$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb72…8b01backed Yes | 14c | 5,788$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 11c | 5,545$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.08 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Yes | 30c | 4,239$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.68 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 15c | 3,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 5c | 2,841$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.89 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3199…3ab8backed Yes | 13c | 2,440$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Yes | 7c | 1,836$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 11c | 1,644$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.05 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…2fa6backed Yes | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 28c | 1,490$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.29 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 16c | 1,290$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.23 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +5,582.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206a…29eebacked Yes | 22c | 1,136$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 15c | 1,067$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…1977backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…cdaabacked Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd19c…f16bbacked Yes | 5c | 800$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 19c | 780$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 11c | 700$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…64e9backed Yes | 28c | 572.5$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 483.91$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…e3adbacked Yes | 17c | 422.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe520…28b0backed Yes | 13c | 400$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…9ef3backed Yes | 17c | 380.87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 18c | 347.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3795…4c73backed Yes | 8c | 322.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b7…09cebacked Yes | 19c | 315.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Yes | 14c | 300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…4275backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 12c | 255.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes | 16c | 233.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 229$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec5…20d8backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…bc05backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc104…a5c0backed No | 78c | 196.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 16c | 188.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1534…044dbacked Yes | 13c | 185$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5b…23cabacked No | 71c | 172.41$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 11c | 159.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 8c | 159$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b9…c8e4backed Yes | 18c | 149.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b3…45bcbacked Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a05…78febacked Yes | 18c | 119.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…6ff8backed Yes | 14c | 114.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705f…3fcfbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9741…4573backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a05…7afdbacked No | 71c | 98.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8abb…dbbebacked Yes | 12c | 94.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…0dc4backed Yes | 23c | 57.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f42…0957backed Yes | 26c | 57.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 50.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Dommaraju Gukesh win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Hans Moke Niemann win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?Yes won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Vidit Santosh Gujrathi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will another player win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.