Chess · resolved market
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5106cb069d53b08b1e8033905b0823f2a87a5cb0b65d51d8b86fe9047c1e7cb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Yes | 11c | 10,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 13c | 3,500$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.5 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 10c | 3,127$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.46 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 6c | 1,806$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.02 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb72…8b01backed Yes | 7c | 1,407$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 5c | 999$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…1977backed Yes | 11c | 942.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 7c | 900$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +5,582.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdffc…53e6backed Yes | 10c | 825.45$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…2fa6backed Yes | 13c | 630$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 10c | 555.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…980bbacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…4275backed Yes | 12c | 398.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes | 14c | 370$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 14c | 337$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 334.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 8c | 325$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 295$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes | 7c | 229.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Yes | 11c | 192.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…a9bebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c6…bcf8backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Dommaraju Gukesh win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Hans Moke Niemann win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?Yes won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Vidit Santosh Gujrathi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
- Will another player win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Paris?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.