NBA · resolved market
Will LeBron James join a new team this offseason?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x209edf903d3856b319cdbf366f8ecc1732122fd7df555b2c091d8621f890cf2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d06…da8dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,109$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,786$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 6c | 1,197$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 13c | 982.86$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.13 | 138 | 35.5%49 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 14c | 922.82$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.39 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 15c | 670.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…1806backed Yes | 10c | 593.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes | 12c | 574.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.34 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…378bbacked Yes | 16c | 473$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 11c | 462.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6938…e766backed Yes | 10c | 380$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63de…7364backed Yes | 9c | 308.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 11c | 301.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 12c | 300$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…0b32backed Yes | 9c | 277.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa310…4c56backed Yes | 12c | 267.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca21…b07cbacked Yes | 26c | 260$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 224 | 58.9%132 W · 92 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 26c | 254.9$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce5b…047abacked Yes | 33c | 254.45$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…cf3cbacked Yes | 14c | 247.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 14c | 246.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 44c | 222$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked Yes | 27c | 221.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f73…74f0backed Yes | 14c | 167.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030e…20ebbacked Yes | 9c | 165.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc402…8d5fbacked Yes | 18c | 141.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Yes | 24c | 126.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe67c…12cbbacked Yes | 18c | 111.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 13c | 110.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 44c | 94.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfa…a298backed Yes | 23c | 86.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90d…a7debacked Yes | 21c | 72.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 23c | 55.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 436 | 53.2%232 W · 204 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e2…905ebacked Yes | 40c | 50.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb4…d58ebacked Yes | 42c | 47.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 45c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 60c | 32.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will LeBron James join a new team this offseason?this page
- Will Chris Paul join a new team this offseason?Yes won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo join a new team this offseason?No won
- Will Jaylen Brown join a new team this offseason?No won
- Will Julius Randle join a new team this offseason?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.