NBA · resolved market
Will another NBA All Star get traded before the deadline?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4021ed2cbaa6428685d5fb3025fb205907c1fb0bd4c1970f674192c80958760
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed No | 73c | 795.2$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.77 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed No | 67c | 524.89$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.89 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 21c | 489.22$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.74 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…25d5backed Yes | 36c | 417$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc280…de71backed Yes | 30c | 216.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe17…dd5cbacked No | 79c | 160$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 76c | 155.27$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…c286backed No | 78c | 154.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fae…1675backed No | 79c | 126.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21aa…5ca2backed Yes | 30c | 114.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked Yes | 28c | 102.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Yes | 22c | 102.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 194 | 48.5%94 W · 100 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 22c | 77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 80c | 75.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…c440backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc08…6bd3backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 27c | 72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 232 | 37.1%86 W · 146 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 47c | 57.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc9…b16bbacked Yes | 59c | 54.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2771…05debacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…7be4backed Yes | 58c | 46.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…643dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed No | 62c | 39.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e4…3848backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 152 | 19.1%29 W · 123 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked No | 79c | 21.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x743b…df30backed Yes | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.