Chess · resolved market
FIDE World Cup 2025 Quarterfinals - Yi vs Erigaisi (Advances)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebafba817965feb3d8dc6d77eaea3bfbe37d2a8972588f8fc2a86ae2cff3c51f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yiof Yi, Erigaisi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9849…36f0backed Erigaisi | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Erigaisi | 62c | 737.06$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.67 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yi | 27c | 620$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.05 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Erigaisi | 62c | 570$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.9 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Erigaisi | 40c | 189.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.07 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Erigaisi | 56c | 186$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Erigaisi | 63c | 173.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…4a81backed Yi | 77c | 170$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…e8c0backed Yi | 59c | 149.58$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Erigaisi | 69c | 145$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Erigaisi | 66c | 120$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc0…d015backed Erigaisi | 45c | 110.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…5120backed Yi | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yi | 24c | 91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yi | 54c | 64.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eab…a853backed Erigaisi | 75c | 61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked Erigaisi | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Erigaisi | 61c | 58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…e935backed Erigaisi | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Erigaisi | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yi | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Erigaisi | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccc…4368backed Yi | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd7…1778backed Yi | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4e…8ae5backed Erigaisi | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…c3abbacked Erigaisi | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…3f0bbacked Erigaisi | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.