Movies · resolved market
Will Send Help be the highest grossing movie this weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb25c4ee6132c83ce6bdbfb13a4bf6659eef48ad6ad8e700acf2b82346d5ac041
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbe0…ac46backed No | 2c | 1,082$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bb…5048backed No | 2c | 999.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 54c | 420.34$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.68 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…dc8cbacked No | 2c | 410$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 54c | 391.38$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.33 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc167…026ebacked Yes | 68c | 357.82$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 11c | 314.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 10c | 237$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 32c | 190$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 39c | 126.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked No | 13c | 102.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…e455backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…3641backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 19c | 51.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…95e2backed No | 44c | 50.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a67…0913backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde31…4f59backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 28c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…d732backed Yes | 60c | 37.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eef…f594backed Yes | 64c | 18.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Send Help be the highest grossing movie this weekend?this page
- Will Iron Lung be the highest grossing movie this weekend?No won
- Will Solo Mio be the highest grossing movie this weekend?No won
- Will Stray Kids: The dominATE Experience be the highest grossing movie this weekend?No won
- Will The Strangers - Chapter 3 be the highest grossing movie this weekend?No won
- Will Zootopia 2 be the highest grossing movie this weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.