TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Send Help be the highest grossing movie this weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,645
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,261

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,645 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdbe0…ac46backed No2c1,082$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9bb…5048backed No2c999.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1920…a04ebacked Yes54c420.34$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.6812631%39 W · 87 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc124…dc8cbacked No2c410$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.122035%7 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+18.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes54c391.38$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.332751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc167…026ebacked Yes68c357.82$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.69540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No11c314.96$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.54148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No10c237$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8187033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No32c190$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6115641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x520b…100abacked No39c126.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.57757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd482…355dbacked No13c102.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.77425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-55.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a1c…e455backed No46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-64.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.051,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x000d…3641backed Yes57c52.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.63850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No19c51.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.035545.5%25 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e5f…95e2backed No44c50.13$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.06650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a67…0913backed No44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-39.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde31…4f59backed Yes73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick28cpaid-16.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No28c47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1616453.7%88 W · 76 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x92d0…d732backed Yes60c37.03$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eef…f594backed Yes64c18.44$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.55250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.