Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon dip to $192 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe98b9b2e5a2177caf5dd606d42696a8bcb9e8bf9ce22d024f37fd7f053de0254
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 8c | 7,475$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.42 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 27c | 4,433$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.96 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 11c | 3,227$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.97 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d3…c5afbacked No | 73c | 2,710$1,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed No | 44c | 2,619$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.42 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed Yes | 57c | 1,777$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 58c | 1,370$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.13 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 53c | 1,079$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 35c | 1,042$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.52 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 912.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…a46abacked Yes | 2c | 742.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 41c | 735.13$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.21 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…eaffbacked Yes | 8c | 722.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed Yes | 62c | 709$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.58 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed No | 65c | 466.88$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.07 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 435.89$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.68 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 37c | 420$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…2dadbacked Yes | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 4c | 378.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 72c | 330.86$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.84 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…95e2backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd501…3d0abacked Yes | 40c | 232.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 206.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed No | 68c | 197$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 19c | 174.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed No | 72c | 155$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 149.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd45e…99cfbacked No | 33c | 143.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.41 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 74c | 142.54$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…137cbacked No | 73c | 136.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a4…ffebbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4980…f038backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff0…1429backed No | 78c | 89.78$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 38c | 72.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f75…550abacked Yes | 24c | 69.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ca…9a86backed Yes | 26c | 64.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 74c | 59.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed Yes | 55c | 49.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 51c | 45.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb539…a3eabacked Yes | 23c | 43.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 26c | 42.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…fbbcbacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…3344backed No | 77c | 35.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +29%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf924…435bbacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3415…2a8cbacked Yes | 61c | 29.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 51c | 26.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked No | 78c | 26.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 53c | 26.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +9.9wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed No | 73c | 21.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…63c8backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0de…fc0dbacked Yes | 66c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +198.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…dac5backed No | 74c | 14.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon dip to $192 in February?this page
- Will Amazon dip to $156 in February?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $176 in February?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $204 in February?Yes won
- Will Amazon dip to $216 in February?Yes won
- Will Amazon dip to $224 in February?Yes won
- Will Amazon dip to $232 in February?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $248 in February?No won
- Will Amazon reach $256 in February?No won
- Will Amazon reach $268 in February?No won
- Will Amazon reach $284 in February?No won
- Will Amazon reach $320 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.