Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon reach $256 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42559431ecd3bcbfb4753a4e69114fa6be5840fd088eb83e177977cd6c66a96d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b1f…697cbacked No | 41c | 206$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x592d…04ddbacked No | 41c | 205$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…5181backed No | 41c | 203$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…088fbacked No | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb313…a795backed No | 41c | 198$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969e…b55ebacked No | 41c | 189$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96a…091abacked No | 41c | 189$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…a085backed No | 41c | 188$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeefd…eafebacked No | 41c | 188$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee32…1cd7backed No | 41c | 185$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…80e2backed No | 41c | 183$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…9d0abacked No | 41c | 154$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 42c | 151.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.18 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…7569backed Yes | 59c | 144$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…5d9ebacked Yes | 59c | 143$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0230…b520backed Yes | 59c | 143$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd45b…17afbacked No | 45c | 143$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc22…65a9backed No | 45c | 141$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x667b…dbb5backed Yes | 59c | 140$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…0a90backed Yes | 59c | 139$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…de0cbacked Yes | 59c | 139$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 57c | 138.61$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee8…0e51backed Yes | 59c | 138$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017e…1c40backed Yes | 59c | 138$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…1698backed Yes | 59c | 136$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6033…e7e9backed Yes | 59c | 136$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc29…a5c2backed Yes | 59c | 136$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…360bbacked Yes | 59c | 135$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42bb…6e0fbacked Yes | 59c | 135$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…22e5backed Yes | 59c | 134$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…8cefbacked Yes | 59c | 134$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7d…abf6backed No | 45c | 133$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b7…44d8backed Yes | 59c | 132$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea7…ca57backed No | 45c | 130$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633c…0804backed No | 45c | 129$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc09c…7c23backed No | 45c | 128$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 128$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4632…5d6ebacked Yes | 59c | 128$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x869a…6178backed Yes | 59c | 127$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6bb…ab26backed No | 45c | 127$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…cf32backed No | 41c | 125$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…1268backed Yes | 65c | 117.6$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.19 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7be9…d515backed Yes | 55c | 117$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…3cecbacked Yes | 55c | 115$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 75c | 112.6$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…c7bebacked Yes | 55c | 111$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…6d84backed Yes | 55c | 107$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x674e…2ce6backed Yes | 55c | 103$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84a…8d8fbacked Yes | 55c | 102$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b37…8f91backed Yes | 55c | 101$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…ed93backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…dc5abacked No | 41c | 92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…a50ebacked Yes | 55c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 65c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…de4abacked Yes | 59c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3631…7db6backed No | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 50c | 20.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon reach $256 in February?this page
- Will Amazon dip to $156 in February?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $176 in February?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $192 in February?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $204 in February?Yes won
- Will Amazon dip to $216 in February?Yes won
- Will Amazon dip to $224 in February?Yes won
- Will Amazon dip to $232 in February?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $248 in February?No won
- Will Amazon reach $268 in February?No won
- Will Amazon reach $284 in February?No won
- Will Amazon reach $320 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.