Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon dip to $224 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7c238d9e87666505d0fc2298b28e30689351aa3044b0e4a7619d97f60dab574
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf82a…d221backed No | 0c | 20,767$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 52c | 282.52$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.43 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 43c | 162.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.9 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c7…51a9backed Yes | 54c | 155$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a9…3dafbacked Yes | 54c | 154$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38eb…0469backed Yes | 54c | 147$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa8…7574backed Yes | 54c | 146$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab50…b44bbacked Yes | 54c | 145$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…2ffcbacked Yes | 54c | 145$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…b7c1backed Yes | 54c | 144$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a8…6adbbacked Yes | 54c | 144$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…9227backed Yes | 54c | 142$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8d…d593backed Yes | 54c | 141$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…c751backed No | 46c | 140$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39e6…ac5fbacked Yes | 54c | 139$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…f456backed Yes | 54c | 139$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bea…fc27backed No | 46c | 137$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9c64backed No | 46c | 137$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52c5…e445backed No | 46c | 135$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d7…fe90backed No | 46c | 135$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f9…c3f6backed No | 46c | 133$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84c…ec51backed No | 46c | 130$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc4…dd44backed No | 46c | 129$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303e…6929backed No | 46c | 127$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1f…db0cbacked No | 46c | 126$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e2…fd90backed No | 46c | 126$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf8…d959backed No | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e28…9cf8backed No | 46c | 102$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b70…3ae6backed No | 46c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon dip to $224 in February?this page
- Will Amazon dip to $156 in February?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $176 in February?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $192 in February?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $204 in February?Yes won
- Will Amazon dip to $216 in February?Yes won
- Will Amazon dip to $232 in February?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $248 in February?No won
- Will Amazon reach $256 in February?No won
- Will Amazon reach $268 in February?No won
- Will Amazon reach $284 in February?No won
- Will Amazon reach $320 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.