Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon reach $268 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83a2fa96505f6bee0510f9b95e717862f80d01be8ad3d866a230c0d5672f6ccf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b54…1005backed Yes | 41c | 206$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c9…caedbacked Yes | 41c | 205$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…3964backed Yes | 41c | 202$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x599a…fa3ebacked Yes | 41c | 198$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…2849backed Yes | 41c | 197$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b4…98fabacked Yes | 41c | 197$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f52…602cbacked Yes | 41c | 186$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff1e…596cbacked Yes | 41c | 186$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f5…8e99backed Yes | 41c | 183$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…c4e4backed Yes | 36c | 177$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e90…8df1backed Yes | 36c | 176$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7000…5b7ebacked Yes | 36c | 174$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24f3…84f7backed Yes | 36c | 171$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…a7b3backed Yes | 36c | 168$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x313f…1d2ebacked Yes | 36c | 165$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200d…f191backed Yes | 41c | 143$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…889cbacked No | 59c | 143$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f49…dec5backed No | 59c | 142$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd92…4b4dbacked No | 59c | 142$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe206…e96fbacked Yes | 36c | 139$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaf…e600backed No | 59c | 139$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb20…bc19backed No | 59c | 139$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4f…124dbacked No | 59c | 139$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…2c43backed No | 59c | 138$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d49…58a1backed No | 59c | 135$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…5bd0backed No | 59c | 134$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…ea7abacked No | 59c | 133$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…3fd0backed No | 59c | 132$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda86…f3adbacked No | 59c | 132$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 129$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca8…9069backed No | 59c | 128$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c5…31dcbacked No | 59c | 127$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…c391backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x492d…8829backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…2e74backed No | 64c | 99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3a…54b6backed No | 64c | 99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…8726backed No | 64c | 95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb30b…9b6ebacked No | 64c | 94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6021…bfeebacked No | 64c | 88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…c039backed No | 64c | 88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadf…cce7backed No | 64c | 88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…aacfbacked No | 64c | 88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…0b90backed No | 64c | 87$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c36…4157backed No | 64c | 86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…1268backed Yes | 45c | 83.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…6f59backed No | 64c | 58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 57c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 59c | 35.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon reach $268 in February?this page
- Will Amazon dip to $156 in February?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $176 in February?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $192 in February?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $204 in February?Yes won
- Will Amazon dip to $216 in February?Yes won
- Will Amazon dip to $224 in February?Yes won
- Will Amazon dip to $232 in February?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $248 in February?No won
- Will Amazon reach $256 in February?No won
- Will Amazon reach $284 in February?No won
- Will Amazon reach $320 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.