Earnings · resolved market
Will Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x614260d38ef6966d3ff127fe96de879506230c26ba4967499242a10ad327eee6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 11c | 3,000$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.69 | 333 | 24.9%83 W · 250 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…51b6backed No | 9c | 2,200$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 9c | 1,901$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.68 | 310 | 14.8%46 W · 264 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 9c | 1,500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c8…3170backed No | 7c | 1,348$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 10c | 1,187$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.95 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2589…85e0backed No | 12c | 1,141$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed No | 7c | 812.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed No | 9c | 640.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed No | 12c | 576.48$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…bbabbacked No | 13c | 521.47$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 9c | 464.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 772 | 37.3%288 W · 484 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd97d…4d06backed No | 10c | 388.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 12c | 375.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 318 | 29.2%93 W · 225 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed No | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…95e2backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 9c | 271.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked No | 8c | 224.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 273 | 52%142 W · 131 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 215.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…5ba0backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf11e…eb4fbacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 13c | 192.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf97…4653backed No | 8c | 178.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3230…3fbebacked No | 6c | 169.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +49%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 12c | 147$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 589 | 38.9%229 W · 360 L | -26.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 8c | 139.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 11c | 134.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…bd9fbacked No | 12c | 134.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…7622backed No | 12c | 132$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…7cc5backed No | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…0c3cbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd6…b634backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.