TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will Google dip to $300 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,080
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,860

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,080 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd1b…682bbacked No0c19,218$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4d3…c5afbacked No49c2,397$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.53944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes54c2,037$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.61,77949.1%873 W · 906 L+143.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes36c2,009$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,291.0299038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x969f…4d55backed No51c1,710$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.141,11143.7%486 W · 625 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes80c1,335$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.5581240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No78c1,227$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.757071.4%50 W · 20 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5b1…bb91backed Yes63c1,155$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.7475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae84…5a32backed Yes41c1,116$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes51c868.64$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.473716.2%6 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-54%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc21e…0215backed Yes72c761.11$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.447034.3%24 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa8f…d61bbacked Yes53c628.7$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.132060%12 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae50…0119backed No47c610.7$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.031020%2 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-41.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x375e…6c94backed No68c500$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No9c405.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.544168.7%36 W · 380 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe61a…cbc5backed No32c398.75$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12730%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed Yes68c378.75$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.22871.4%20 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes44c377.67$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.0460229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb637…4c42backed Yes37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1891136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No8c284$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.21,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes54c279.11$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.9816248.1%78 W · 84 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc210…8b21backed No70c275.78$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.081747.1%8 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x120e…edc8backed Yes37c259.15$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.09728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c9…d567backed No35c222.98$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.22633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No65c220.61$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.46864.7%44 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed Yes33c200$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1342250%11 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes66c196.96$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9722129%64 W · 157 L-14.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes54c172.12$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.185335.8%19 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No21c167.74$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0316418.9%31 W · 133 L-16.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes62c155$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes31c144.94$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.0586338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes28c137.3$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.918853.2%100 W · 88 L+18.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+55.8%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xf988…07cabacked No31c129.79$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed No68c117.87$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick71cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No33c108.88$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9317049.4%84 W · 86 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcae0…9f81backed Yes66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+79.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb60d…bfb5backed No56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick51cpaid-81.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes39c98$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.787726%20 W · 57 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-52.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes37c93.97$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.2756548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d5…1eb0backed Yes69c93.16$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-51.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5742…5e12backed No69c90$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.651136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked Yes68c76.71$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.554057.5%23 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1515…27debacked Yes73c63.38$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.32520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-72.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08c1…6eb3backed Yes64c59.09$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.271030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes34c58.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.821233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-12.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x47e7…7c61backed No26c57.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.633672.2%26 W · 10 L+9.9wins+0.28per pick45cpaid+62.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No34c55.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8910749.5%53 W · 54 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed Yes25c53.2$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0610427.9%29 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa28e…d0e9backed Yes53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No75c42$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.367068.6%48 W · 22 L+8.5wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7815…1e7ebacked Yes52c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick46cpaid-67.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes28c38.55$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.862718.5%5 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-51.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e5f…95e2backed Yes36c34.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+32.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes35c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.527429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.115947.8%76 W · 83 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0de…fc0dbacked Yes64c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.64862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+198.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e91…e062backed Yes53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd54…b332backed Yes63c19.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd45e…99cfbacked Yes71c15.35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.451741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed No75c14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5223245.3%105 W · 127 L+15.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.