Stocks · resolved market
Will Google reach $385 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b44dcff5908fce596c262fbee6a5081b1ca73fef28d4d5b608040cb4a35e236
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 25c | 520$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54c6…4dfdbacked Yes | 4c | 452.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c30…7673backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 75c | 359$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…a182backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…c767backed Yes | 10c | 284$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 269.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed No | 75c | 240$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +4.0wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 5c | 232.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…30c9backed Yes | 18c | 214.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e66…86a3backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 76c | 189.88$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 11c | 133.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…ceebbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e94…f7bfbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7c…a8f0backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 78c | 78.6$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 70 | 71.4%50 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f3…5294backed Yes | 26c | 77.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google reach $385 in February?this page
- Will Google dip to $225 in February?No won
- Will Google dip to $250 in February?No won
- Will Google dip to $270 in February?No won
- Will Google dip to $285 in February?No won
- Will Google dip to $300 in February?Yes won
- Will Google dip to $310 in February?Yes won
- Will Google dip to $320 in February?Yes won
- Will Google reach $330 in February?Yes won
- Will Google reach $350 in February?No won
- Will Google reach $365 in February?No won
- Will Google reach $405 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.