World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 295 and 309 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfebb48bf9ed6d7b72812ee71ba57bc444ca41036b358c515fd79ac820fecb803
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 5c | 4,751$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.03 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4943…3884backed Yes | 32c | 3,153$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 68c | 2,992$2,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.42 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…8a73backed Yes | 29c | 849.98$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.86 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…196abacked No | 77c | 649.88$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.88 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…90c2backed Yes | 27c | 642.97$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 5c | 641.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 77c | 617.21$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.32 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 14c | 529.39$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 9c | 500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 79c | 423.61$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 26c | 287.94$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.61 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 9c | 280$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 23c | 210.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…95e2backed Yes | 14c | 199.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 22c | 174.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 69c | 162.03$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 22c | 140.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 122.71$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 27c | 99.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 93.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc86a…83e5backed Yes | 25c | 80.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 74c | 70.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa724…83c8backed Yes | 20c | 60.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…898abacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5e…a92cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 295 and 309 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?this page
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win 310 or more seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?Yes won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 250 and 264 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?No won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 265 and 279 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?No won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 280 and 294 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?No won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win fewer than 250 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.