Us Politics · resolved market
Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed real?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4557eb39b420c7b60ff9d7b76bcf6f978cdd35cef75365623e55d4277633fba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $400,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $292,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $400,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78a0…8b9ebacked Yes | 0c | 24,927$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b34…66adbacked Yes | 0c | 20,405$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…c8b4backed Yes | 0c | 15,012$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 13,344$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 12,065$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…2edbbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…87e0backed Yes | 1c | 11,541$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f70…97f7backed Yes | 0c | 10,370$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x833d…c788backed Yes | 1c | 8,876$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +275%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 0c | 7,341$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ace…525bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,603$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…611ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,135$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…12d0backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bd…f543backed Yes | 2c | 4,250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19a1…d729backed Yes | 0c | 3,992$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,818$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 1c | 3,750$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2962…0029backed Yes | 2c | 3,728$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 0c | 3,073$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a52…a933backed Yes | 7c | 2,954$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…c739backed Yes | 1c | 2,247$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d01…d68ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,202$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 9c | 2,131$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…37d1backed Yes | 0c | 2,017$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6af1…de18backed Yes | 1c | 1,474$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…95e2backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8568…2129backed Yes | 3c | 1,164$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8190…b247backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…6edbbacked Yes | 1c | 996.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…9ca1backed Yes | 2c | 952.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd198…eaddbacked Yes | 2c | 900.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffbc…b889backed Yes | 2c | 899.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3009…be46backed Yes | 13c | 768.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 4c | 740$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed Yes | 8c | 360$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7a…9355backed Yes | 3c | 339$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…d3d5backed Yes | 3c | 309.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe85b…6d4bbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…51f9backed Yes | 10c | 151.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…7249backed Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.