Middle East · resolved market
Odds of US strikes Iran in February over 50% by Feb 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cb5123b4800f5ce9a88d8a673edae6cf3ec5ce4d94fdf5d42c807423d9f6c8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 1c | 24,999$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.99 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes | 10c | 8,713$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.39 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed Yes | 5c | 8,042$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.03 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 8c | 6,155$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.71 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 6c | 6,063$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.34 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 5,100$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.8 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed Yes | 10c | 4,998$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.51 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e9…1fc2backed Yes | 12c | 4,311$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 1c | 3,352$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 1,714$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,680$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.44 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fd…8a0ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,596$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Yes | 10c | 1,565$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 3c | 1,479$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf964…6e97backed Yes | 3c | 1,336$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 1,300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 1,185$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.59 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,117$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 1,100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 6c | 1,099$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed4f…e25abacked Yes | 10c | 1,071$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 5c | 932.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90b4…fd80backed Yes | 11c | 905.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 900$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 11c | 882.36$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.83 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 6c | 767.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…5007backed Yes | 11c | 614.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed Yes | 10c | 500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 9c | 500$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 9c | 466.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 117 | 28.2%33 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e44…0c4ebacked Yes | 12c | 431.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 14cpaid | -93%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 427.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed Yes | 6c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 12c | 336.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc596…c316backed Yes | 6c | 317.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9370…107abacked Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…e977backed Yes | 10c | 299.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…8520backed Yes | 7c | 275.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 8c | 247.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 7c | 241$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 5c | 230.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc999…ca09backed Yes | 7c | 210$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 7c | 204.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 118 | 16.1%19 W · 99 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f52…6f28backed Yes | 12c | 199.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x898f…23f0backed Yes | 6c | 196.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 189.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…c253backed Yes | 9c | 166.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…599dbacked Yes | 10c | 142.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…95e2backed Yes | 17c | 130.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.