Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38424e350da231aeec8ec190e23fe3465e9a81fdc68a71da05a38d9e39fd4d37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 303.82$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.64 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 293.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 288.72$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 67c | 258.07$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.07 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…556cbacked Yes | 79c | 254.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 65c | 231.49$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.74 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 59c | 168.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.52 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 159.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 33c | 140.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.57 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 77c | 126.58$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.91 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 23c | 124.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.83 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 65c | 122.09$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.41 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 46c | 107.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 41c | 107.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed Yes | 78c | 102.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 59c | 102.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 26c | 99.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.07 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 89.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…673cbacked Yes | 57c | 88.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 23c | 86.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 79.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 78.46$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 22c | 75.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 57c | 70.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 38c | 70.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 44c | 58.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 39c | 57.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 20c | 52.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 55c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1423…a8cabacked Yes | 56c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 34c | 50.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c0…20adbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 56c | 49.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 41c | 48.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 41c | 48.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 47.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 60c | 46.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 46.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 45.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 36c | 43.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 79c | 42.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 51c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 55c | 39.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed Yes | 77c | 39.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked Yes | 57c | 37.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…5a88backed Yes | 53c | 37.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 32c | 35.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e4…71f0backed Yes | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 52c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a9…ad23backed Yes | 42c | 28.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 27.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…864cbacked Yes | 70c | 27.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 40c | 26.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 46c | 25.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…19f8backed Yes | 70c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0381backed Yes | 79c | 24.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 80c | 23.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 52c | 23.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 61c | 21.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 60c | 20.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 20.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe805…e416backed No | 66c | 19.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or higher on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.