Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e22bd63432519ad93a21db1b1ce2b8eb49205a99b28bb5af22c71665bde245e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 22c | 368.87$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.42 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 14c | 239.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 15c | 199.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 48c | 192.27$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.82 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 73c | 191.6$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 73c | 162.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 120.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 115$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 111.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 71c | 104.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…673cbacked Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 26c | 82.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 78.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 67.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 75c | 66.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 32c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 41c | 58.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 57.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…0ff4backed Yes | 28c | 51.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc898…b0f8backed Yes | 23c | 46.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 33c | 44.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf384…75a5backed No | 72c | 44.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 65c | 35.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 34.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad63…a18dbacked Yes | 31c | 31.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 71c | 31.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 29.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 67c | 28.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 25.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 73c | 24.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 80c | 23.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 65c | 23.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 62c | 22.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 52c | 20.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 69c | 19.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ee…f8bdbacked No | 66c | 18.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 66c | 18.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 65c | 15.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.