Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe41af35a1670463b6e6214d9298b5c15d23c1b5beabd9cad81af599c3549e9ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 55c | 593.99$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.99 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked No | 69c | 461.85$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.6 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -12.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 50c | 411.36$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.35 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…3538backed No | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 26c | 308.92$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 272.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 51c | 212.65$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.96 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 55c | 182.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.27 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 39c | 164.32$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ac…d51ebacked Yes | 42c | 149.62$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.07 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 136.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 106.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 45c | 100.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 29c | 96.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 13c | 95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 61c | 89.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 37c | 80.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 80.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 40c | 78.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 64c | 73.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 62c | 71.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 36c | 69.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 53c | 63.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 61.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 40c | 59.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 25c | 56.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 40c | 55.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b19…bae5backed No | 54c | 55.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 54c | 54.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 54.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 62c | 51.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 40c | 51.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…152ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 56c | 49.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 21c | 47.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 63c | 47.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…abc4backed Yes | 49c | 46.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…0511backed Yes | 44c | 45.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 29c | 44.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc714…e39ebacked Yes | 48c | 41.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 42c | 40.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 40.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a6…9d7abacked Yes | 52c | 40.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 50c | 39.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 38c | 36.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…5f51backed Yes | 47c | 34.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 46c | 34.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 59c | 31.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 58c | 31.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…1dd9backed No | 56c | 30.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 51c | 25.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 62c | 24.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 48c | 24.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 49c | 23.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…8377backed Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 56c | 21.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 48c | 20.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…86c6backed Yes | 56c | 20.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe805…e416backed No | 64c | 19.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 53c | 18.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 57c | 18.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…59e0backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -7.2wins | -0.26per pick | 61cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.