Ukraine · resolved market
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81d9d61811f6f317021259c07d71741cf06ffad0d71754ec0d608b52956974bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff52…4546backed Yes | 48c | 2,726$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c33…8ad6backed No | 51c | 1,843$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 10c | 900$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.3 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 52c | 727.93$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d17…008fbacked Yes | 6c | 484.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 45c | 442.27$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.34 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 70c | 401.24$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.52 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…7324backed No | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked No | 48c | 306.41$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.28 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 23c | 250$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked No | 62c | 245.42$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.21 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…3e69backed Yes | 68c | 211.67$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c9…dec1backed Yes | 47c | 211.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ed…d0b3backed No | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ae…ed64backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…d2cfbacked No | 50c | 192$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 57c | 183.44$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…32c1backed No | 73c | 178.87$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18f…ec55backed Yes | 9c | 172.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…673cbacked Yes | 36c | 168.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 31c | 161.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 30c | 160.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 43c | 159.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 77c | 150$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed No | 77c | 104.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…9f68backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ba…5618backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 63c | 93.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb95d…da6dbacked Yes | 40c | 88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502d…9cd5backed No | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2190…be6dbacked No | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 24c | 85.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8f…30f3backed No | 49c | 72.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…5803backed Yes | 61c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda0c…519abacked Yes | 40c | 44.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…702fbacked Yes | 64c | 42.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b332backed Yes | 36c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 34cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…a949backed No | 74c | 39.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +10.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x73aa…c3b4backed No | 66c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 43c | 37.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x062d…b00cbacked No | 66c | 34.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…7a98backed No | 72c | 34.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7d…6746backed No | 52c | 33.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c02…1ec1backed No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa32…a55bbacked Yes | 39c | 25.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8400backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea35…e42fbacked Yes | 46c | 24.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked No | 50c | 23.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b4…d1cdbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b15…e32dbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0002…2bcbbacked No | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b65…f7a0backed No | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4776…2b83backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.