Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b94a25d8d260370fe1eb11923c2ac9b698beb7e0293e63e32bee0543eea824e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 74c | 3,906$2,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.99 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.47 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 26c | 852.69$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.5 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 823.71$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.12 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 24c | 625.83$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.62 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 69c | 520.02$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.41 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 79c | 494.46$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.46 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 16c | 469$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.83 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 25c | 384.44$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5d…05f7backed No | 30c | 331.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 324$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 31c | 322$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 33c | 302.13$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 23c | 265.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc0…eefdbacked No | 20c | 241.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 26c | 239.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 29c | 213.31$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 60c | 204$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.65 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 19c | 198.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 30c | 170.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 64c | 170.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.97 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 35c | 168.74$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 165.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf3…ca4abacked Yes | 78c | 149.98$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 51c | 147.07$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.07 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfafe…066fbacked Yes | 70c | 146.84$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 22c | 136$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 27c | 133.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 29c | 123.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…5fe1backed No | 58c | 122.41$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 24c | 121.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 36c | 120.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…673cbacked No | 24c | 113.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 28c | 112.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 32c | 110$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 75c | 106.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 35c | 104$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…e4c2backed Yes | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 40c | 96.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…0f8abacked Yes | 73c | 95.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 22c | 95.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 32c | 93.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 78c | 92$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 31c | 91.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 34c | 78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 20c | 72.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 27c | 67.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 22c | 63.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 42c | 59.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 24c | 58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 35c | 56.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 54c | 55.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 23c | 55.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 74c | 54.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 37c | 52.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…d2acbacked No | 34c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 63c | 48.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 30c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 73c | 47.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 42c | 46.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 30c | 46.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 25c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 57c | 42.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked Yes | 65c | 40.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 74c | 38.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 35c | 38.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 42c | 37.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 72c | 35.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 37c | 33.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 46c | 31.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 79c | 31.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 72c | 24.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 73c | 23.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…89b7backed No | 69c | 21.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed Yes | 80c | 21.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x222a…d5afbacked Yes | 71c | 21.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 79c | 19.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 65c | 18.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed Yes | 69c | 17.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…d2f6backed Yes | 73c | 16.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07c…6c36backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.