TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,967
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,646

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,967 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6f24…64b5backed No0c3,345$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.654040%16 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No16c349.35$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2676755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No11c306.09$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.382,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No29c285$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.45,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No31c219.93$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.243,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No46c218.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2971823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No23c216.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.383,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No50c198.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10089661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No9c197.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.781,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes56c186.19$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.255832.8%19 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No14c185.42$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6df1…3661backed Yes72c185.4$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.194748.9%23 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x342c…de11backed Yes74c183.22$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3817241.9%72 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No51c178.37$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.992,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No33c178.3$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.985,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aab…ead7backed Yes59c169.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.810141.6%42 W · 59 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes50c168$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8415131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes54c155.31$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9765043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaafb…a387backed Yes65c153.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.11616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.41per pick58cpaid-74.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes48c149.99$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.351,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c76…a144backed Yes78c141.1$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.771435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No40c140.18$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes71c138.73$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.535,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No27c136.03$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1683459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed No47c130.28$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7643139.2%169 W · 262 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes43c125.65$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.1974338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No27c117.31$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.854,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No14c116.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.551,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc60c…cdeebacked No18c115.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.565812.1%7 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid+103.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes38c110.6$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.1617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No55c102.57$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.662,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes48c102.42$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2946240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2108…2e40backed Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.935939%23 W · 36 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe466…7db5backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502181%17 W · 4 L+5.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+54.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes45c98.48$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.634,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes51c97.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3845238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No53c94.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.147,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No31c87.07$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.761,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No63c85.65$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.12,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes61c81.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.524553.3%24 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No53c81.48$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.991,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes51c80$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.23,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…98d0backed No17c79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.16368.3%3 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-40.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes58c78.88$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8817135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No54c77.78$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2765965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9218…a039backed Yes46c75.91$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+116.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No46c75.91$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.025,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No45c72$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.734,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x885b…4b09backed Yes56c70$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.51855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23b2…605cbacked No51c68.54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3511459.6%68 W · 46 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No52c63.75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1525358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4081…dfcabacked Yes48c60.79$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.79757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+20.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2921…1706backed Yes47c60.27$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.172450%12 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c59.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6086…a5f9backed No45c59.53$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5131050.3%156 W · 154 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaea…673cbacked Yes47c57.21$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.211414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-54.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes50c55.69$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6961249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed No47c55.08$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7144448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No46c53.17$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.334,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No52c53.08$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No45c52.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.641,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No53c51.38$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3271159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.51,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd31a…5f51backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.051752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.16per pick37cpaid+30.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c49.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.492,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No57c49.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2778663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdeb…0426backed No43c49.65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No23c49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.052,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes40c45.89$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No27c44.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9180957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6095…be9ebacked Yes59c44.27$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.33580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes52c42.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.683,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes50c42.01$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0152828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes66c41$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.042,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes49c40.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8530652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No54c40.05$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.452,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.460739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb8d…0511backed Yes50c39.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.783652.8%19 W · 17 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+21.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No53c37.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0699963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No55c36.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2619057.9%110 W · 80 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x715a…3e75backed Yes59c35.87$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-43.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x221e…6dcabacked Yes57c35.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes51c35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1591444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No61c34.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.062,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes58c34.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4119848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2e…4322backed No45c34.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.27837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32e0…3884backed Yes44c34.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0511025.5%28 W · 82 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0e6…ab8abacked No51c33.96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.461338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-45.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No38c33.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.922,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes54c33.16$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1640535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No59c32.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.464,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…8377backed Yes61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.793100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+77.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41f5…2c81backed Yes54c31.62$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No47c31.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.492,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes60c30.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.83,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No55c27.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2181756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc06d…6732backed Yes56c26.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.542556%14 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No46c25.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.71,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.