Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3b175775431c07a36d51aa26b79436fa4da521d4d433ae522bf0c681aee81b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 0c | 3,345$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 16c | 349.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 11c | 306.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 285$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 31c | 219.93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 46c | 218.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 23c | 216.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 50c | 198.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 9c | 197.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 56c | 186.19$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 14c | 185.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 72c | 185.4$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 74c | 183.22$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 51c | 178.37$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 33c | 178.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 59c | 169.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 50c | 168$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 54c | 155.31$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…a387backed Yes | 65c | 153.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 58cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 48c | 149.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.35 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c76…a144backed Yes | 78c | 141.1$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 140.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 71c | 138.73$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 27c | 136.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 47c | 130.28$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 43c | 125.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.19 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 27c | 117.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 14c | 116.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…cdeebacked No | 18c | 115.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 110.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 55c | 102.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 48c | 102.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…7db5backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +5.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 45c | 98.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.63 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 51c | 97.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 94.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 31c | 87.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 85.65$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 61c | 81.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 53c | 81.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…98d0backed No | 17c | 79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 58c | 78.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 54c | 77.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9218…a039backed Yes | 46c | 75.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 46c | 75.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885b…4b09backed Yes | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 51c | 68.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 52c | 63.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…dfcabacked Yes | 48c | 60.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…1706backed Yes | 47c | 60.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 45c | 59.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…673cbacked Yes | 47c | 57.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 50c | 55.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 47c | 55.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 46c | 53.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 53.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 45c | 52.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 53c | 51.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…5f51backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 57c | 49.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdeb…0426backed No | 43c | 49.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 23c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 40c | 45.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 27c | 44.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6095…be9ebacked Yes | 59c | 44.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 52c | 42.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 50c | 42.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 66c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 49c | 40.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 54c | 40.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…0511backed Yes | 50c | 39.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 55c | 36.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x715a…3e75backed Yes | 59c | 35.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x221e…6dcabacked Yes | 57c | 35.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 61c | 34.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 58c | 34.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2e…4322backed No | 45c | 34.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 44c | 34.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e6…ab8abacked No | 51c | 33.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 38c | 33.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 54c | 33.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…8377backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f5…2c81backed Yes | 54c | 31.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 47c | 31.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 60c | 30.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 55c | 27.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…6732backed Yes | 56c | 26.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 46c | 25.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.