Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cd80866b3679c2230ccb33512323edc532fff13434a3dcd20f54c323a0e7370
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 12c | 618.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 514.54$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 408.74$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 78c | 268.08$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 6c | 267.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 16c | 253.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 223.28$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 74c | 201.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 19c | 201.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 17c | 194.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 190.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 181.4$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 160.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 148.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 27c | 142.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 23c | 124.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 22c | 122.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes | 13c | 119.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 103.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes | 23c | 101.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 74c | 97.3$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 92.09$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 21c | 89.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 77c | 77.53$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 27c | 74.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…8cebbacked Yes | 23c | 73.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 18c | 73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 72c | 69.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…9b09backed Yes | 30c | 67.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 76c | 63.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 60.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 79c | 58.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 27c | 55.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…6732backed No | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 18c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 67c | 52.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 25c | 45.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…5f51backed Yes | 28c | 40.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 79c | 36.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 78c | 31.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 31.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 72c | 29.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3642…c2f0backed No | 71c | 28.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 80c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 23.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…19f8backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 66c | 20.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 70c | 19.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 77c | 17.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf90…62b9backed No | 73c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 77c | 15.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 68c | 15.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.