Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2e0c3c9ec1fbc92bcdca6cbfc591a8dc27a0a77dfac296d77da5e4acfa320a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 940.69$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 22c | 463.7$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.28 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…556cbacked Yes | 39c | 388.51$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e6…ab8abacked No | 76c | 347.05$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.73 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Yes | 19c | 269.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 70c | 214.01$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.28 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 199.02$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 195.52$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 17c | 185$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 175.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 161.07$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 15c | 149.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 23c | 149.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 131.22$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 129.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 71c | 119.91$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 119.3$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 28c | 115.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 80c | 112$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 111.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 11c | 102.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 13c | 94.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 16c | 93.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 78c | 93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 19c | 91.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 22c | 90.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…c853backed Yes | 35c | 89.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed Yes | 23c | 86.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 83.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 17c | 83.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 78c | 77.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 18c | 75.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 16c | 74.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 16c | 70.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 66c | 68.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 73c | 62.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Yes | 19c | 58.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb93…d52abacked Yes | 24c | 55.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 75c | 55.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 33c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 26c | 38.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 73c | 36.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 32c | 35.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 34.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 74c | 33.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 32.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 79c | 30.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 65c | 29.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 27.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 23.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 22.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 79c | 22.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 21.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 79c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 18.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…c411backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.