Ukraine · resolved market
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26330d09cbe8237d345657f5fce337a4a4a95a0cebe45326ef7c0caaf575ec68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 8c | 8,556$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.16 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…0bcebacked No | 7c | 5,526$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…e57fbacked No | 4c | 5,431$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.74 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 0c | 3,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 4c | 3,397$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.84 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…a140backed No | 4c | 3,214$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 2,379$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.81 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 12c | 2,178$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.24 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 13c | 2,132$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.17 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd9…46d5backed No | 14c | 2,126$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.54 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45dc…bbf2backed Yes | 76c | 2,112$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 8c | 2,006$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.93 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5be…fefdbacked No | 2c | 1,419$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…102cbacked No | 5c | 1,390$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 4c | 1,384$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 4c | 1,360$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 53 | 5.7%3 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 6c | 1,357$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb55…347ebacked No | 5c | 1,309$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 1,050$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 3c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 79c | 917.84$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.48 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fff…cc40backed No | 7c | 905$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 20c | 902.35$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.8 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed No | 10c | 732.12$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…034cbacked Yes | 71c | 700.97$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.97 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…cae1backed No | 18c | 672.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 640.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 63c | 617.69$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.54 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e5…c1ecbacked No | 7c | 600.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 5c | 588.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe656…448abacked No | 25c | 585.47$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccc…2900backed No | 10c | 550$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65fe…9b1fbacked Yes | 76c | 544.78$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.68 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…4b73backed No | 9c | 533.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 532.16$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…673cbacked Yes | 76c | 521.89$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.39 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 30c | 519.58$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.87 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked No | 10c | 480.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…7cdfbacked No | 18c | 472.61$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b01…4b47backed No | 5c | 472.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2f…06a3backed No | 13c | 463.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…b0afbacked No | 15c | 460$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb7…1429backed No | 34c | 433.73$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 71c | 420.09$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.09 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…8432backed No | 24c | 413.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 8c | 401.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 7c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -95.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked No | 5c | 393.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 62c | 392.67$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.09 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cca…6ce7backed No | 3c | 392.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 11c | 385.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked No | 13c | 361.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…6f10backed No | 28c | 361.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…efe0backed Yes | 65c | 351.73$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781b…addebacked No | 35c | 343.67$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5144…7941backed No | 34c | 292.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 14c | 284.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…f4bdbacked No | 12c | 248.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…a75fbacked No | 33c | 240$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ca7backed No | 9c | 231.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 67c | 225.51$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.85 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed Yes | 69c | 214.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…3239backed No | 11c | 206.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -70%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x704c…20a5backed No | 26c | 201.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a83…74a3backed No | 10c | 200.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x667c…d62cbacked No | 11c | 200.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…293ebacked Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1580…2758backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 79c | 197.18$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…7a9fbacked No | 14c | 194.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1f…7f05backed No | 32c | 188.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf411…b975backed No | 16c | 182.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6b…88a7backed No | 15c | 177.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Yes | 79c | 164.64$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…79fdbacked No | 11c | 158.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 29c | 149.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 24cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x151e…81cabacked No | 9c | 147.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…0e1cbacked No | 30c | 147.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5034…3225backed No | 36c | 144.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1319…c27cbacked No | 37c | 133.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 16c | 124.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe13…7163backed Yes | 71c | 121.72$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a7…9aa0backed No | 10c | 121.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked No | 44c | 113.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 34c | 104.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebd7…d40bbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked Yes | 73c | 95.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 65c | 91.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed No | 16c | 84.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc8…69c3backed No | 36c | 84.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe329…03a6backed No | 24c | 83.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…117fbacked No | 33c | 80.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dca…9c49backed No | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…9977backed No | 35c | 63.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 23c | 62.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 10, 2026?this page
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 17, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.