Ukraine · resolved market
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa34f3fbd4d8673747d397790248c2c95bc89d9fed31b0299f08415d9ed344fd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdff5…0bcebacked No | 15c | 3,982$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fff…cc40backed No | 4c | 1,940$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b01…4b47backed No | 2c | 1,679$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 937.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 11c | 936.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…cae1backed No | 14c | 800$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 4c | 652.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 5c | 615.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 53 | 5.7%3 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…b0afbacked No | 11c | 440$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 12c | 407.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…a140backed No | 15c | 404.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccc…2900backed No | 11c | 290$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 18c | 265.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ca7backed No | 6c | 235$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 5c | 218.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe329…03a6backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 73c | 183.85$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa583…2070backed No | 28c | 183.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf84…703cbacked Yes | 76c | 176.91$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked No | 10c | 143.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 15c | 131.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba2…8cc3backed No | 24c | 131.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 77c | 129.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked No | 13c | 127.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…baa3backed Yes | 79c | 126.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 16c | 124.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0445…fb04backed No | 25c | 118.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 80c | 116.13$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 115.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c7…2ddfbacked No | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff0…54e7backed No | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 17c | 88.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…fb01backed Yes | 80c | 85.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09f6…a8cdbacked Yes | 80c | 53.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked Yes | 76c | 34.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc2eb…c299backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c50…482dbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 17, 2026?this page
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 10, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.