Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbf7d392f8b9f3dc6248c32e32720f54901d9926564ef069f084c516f297e49e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,856 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 57c | 884.84$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.9 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 7c | 807.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 3c | 686.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ed…372fbacked No | 14c | 500$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.01 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed No | 9c | 446.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 370.45$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 9c | 350.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 5c | 328.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 27c | 259.89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 9c | 245.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 244.33$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.65 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 73c | 213.42$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 8c | 203.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 51c | 201$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.71 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…2531backed Yes | 39c | 198.4$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 173.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 26c | 157.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.56 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 71c | 153.04$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 152.61$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.31 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 8c | 149.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 149.61$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 76c | 148.74$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 68c | 146$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.91 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 16c | 142.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 31c | 135$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 45c | 126.03$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed Yes | 37c | 122.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 12c | 120.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 20c | 112.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 108.81$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 68c | 92.45$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 41c | 91.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 27c | 82.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 48c | 80.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 28c | 70.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…3f5ebacked Yes | 30c | 67.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 67c | 58.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 64c | 57.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 56.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 66c | 56.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…2db8backed Yes | 34c | 56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 54.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…90aebacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 46.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 35c | 42.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 73c | 41.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 78c | 37.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31f1…35eebacked Yes | 62c | 32.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 76c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…c602backed Yes | 64c | 28.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…fa96backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fee…17b3backed Yes | 45c | 25.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da9…7a30backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 65c | 19.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 75c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 68c | 18.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 65c | 16.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e7…3de8backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 69c | 15.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -11°C or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -6°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -8°C on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.