Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d922eebefbc12940dc31f0d4e6a95d8a311a141ab50685842eb2f8c75843777
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,837 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeeee…4e57backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 28c | 708.2$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.88 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 503.11$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.19 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 379.63$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 26c | 238.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 219.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 20c | 205.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed No | 76c | 190.86$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 76c | 184.71$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef8…7a57backed No | 78c | 157$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…abb2backed Yes | 24c | 152.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 19c | 149.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 75c | 146.03$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 28c | 141.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 137.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 71c | 109.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…406bbacked Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 70c | 93.9$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 31c | 83.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 26c | 80.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 26c | 77.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…2db8backed Yes | 28c | 74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 30c | 71.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 71.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 18c | 65.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd02a…7e76backed Yes | 29c | 65.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 58.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe423…2492backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 78c | 45.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…fa96backed No | 77c | 42.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa470…f6bdbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 26c | 39.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 38.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 78c | 37.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…d1a6backed No | 72c | 33.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 77c | 29.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 23.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 77c | 19.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 76c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 19.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 18.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 74c | 18.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 14.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -11°C or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -6°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -8°C on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.