AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1182762bdd58f83774ef62b43445aaf1dab43fe3c17875359e16d1b078ee9c54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 57c | 6,110$3,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,612.92 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 30c | 4,274$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,988.01 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 3,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 10c | 1,990$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.69 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 76c | 1,967$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.66 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33b5…8417backed Yes | 73c | 1,665$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 69c | 1,620$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.2 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 1,593$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.53 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked No | 25c | 1,465$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 79c | 1,455$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.5 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 25c | 1,383$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.01 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 52c | 1,378$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.04 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 67c | 1,320$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.61 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 79c | 1,237$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e37…67efbacked No | 31c | 1,150$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d9…a2c3backed No | 24c | 1,066$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…bf2ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,053$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 1c | 972.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…d7e1backed No | 8c | 969.14$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…3895backed Yes | 77c | 957.78$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.09 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.39per pick | 39cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 30c | 953$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.1 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6531…6515backed No | 24c | 872.36$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b45…3cbebacked No | 30c | 838.29$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 48c | 803.09$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.39 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 730$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 8c | 716.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 70c | 699.82$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.83 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Yes | 57c | 696.63$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.63 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed Yes | 75c | 655.27$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.9 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…dc88backed Yes | 38c | 651.6$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 77c | 621.1$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.57 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1767…964ebacked No | 34c | 560.16$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.54 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 22c | 520.79$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.15 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6172…bb67backed Yes | 10c | 499.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.96 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +276.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…558cbacked No | 16c | 485.83$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bb…5048backed Yes | 51c | 475$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.52 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 51cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…96febacked No | 18c | 446.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 6c | 402.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Yes | 66c | 390$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.79 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 8c | 385.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 6c | 376.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.9 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 33c | 375.76$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.76 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 13c | 372.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a3…a818backed Yes | 75c | 364.62$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.41 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 347.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaedf…2da9backed Yes | 79c | 335.12$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 69c | 322.89$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.35 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…9f18backed No | 8c | 316.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe224…6e71backed No | 17c | 305.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes | 54c | 290.11$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.05 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x82c5…b617backed No | 35c | 288.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc154…04b2backed No | 30c | 269.37$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c40…445cbacked Yes | 74c | 229.04$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 79c | 204.4$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 52c | 200$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a2…0ff7backed No | 8c | 190.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 73c | 190.55$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 5c | 187.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 41c | 180.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.57 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 165.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 14c | 143.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0d…82c7backed No | 14c | 143.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe5…0146backed Yes | 45c | 141.46$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 75c | 133.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 133.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.02 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5251…68d0backed No | 23c | 128.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…64f4backed Yes | 78c | 128.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 36c | 127.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 23c | 125.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.68 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes | 78c | 118$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303a…4b47backed No | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55a0…8b02backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 49c | 95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 23c | 91.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745b…0b9abacked Yes | 73c | 89.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x790b…1a25backed No | 17c | 87.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa43…22f3backed Yes | 80c | 84.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0acb…05c2backed No | 66c | 83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed No | 24c | 81.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fb…9641backed Yes | 34c | 80.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 78.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…fba5backed No | 23c | 77.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd00b…8dd3backed No | 21c | 71.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes | 32c | 57.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 78c | 55.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed No | 20c | 55.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 79c | 50.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 30c | 50.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 25c | 43.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ea…e9e7backed Yes | 35c | 40.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8521…d9a7backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…2640backed Yes | 78c | 38.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Yes | 79c | 38.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa183…5c91backed Yes | 79c | 36.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…2b4ebacked Yes | 77c | 36.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 42c | 34.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.