Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9055272bf816da4741275fa52f5642e240e70f90445a26bc0a1c3622a4b02534
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed No | 71c | 3,018$2,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,143.04 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 28c | 1,378$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.02 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 46c | 989.43$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.82 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 7c | 810.11$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 21c | 744.03$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.5 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 77c | 700$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.68 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 14c | 695.39$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.42 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 6c | 628.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 45c | 621.56$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.6 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed No | 70c | 579.17$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.95 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 6c | 542.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 500.15$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.16 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 7c | 490.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.68 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 35c | 459.72$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.06 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 438$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 3c | 420.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 3c | 399.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 379.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 5c | 367.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.13 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…3f67backed No | 42c | 343.57$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.11 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 17c | 342.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 5c | 313.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.75 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 300$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.89 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 4c | 299.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.69 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 275.55$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.16 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 10c | 275.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 255.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.83 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 52c | 254.74$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.53 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 59c | 249.3$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.99 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 66c | 241.87$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.29 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 230.54$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 24c | 221.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 221.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 43c | 219.88$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.88 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 39c | 216.82$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.2 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 68c | 216.79$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 13c | 215.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.29 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 7c | 215.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.17 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 24c | 203$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…d7b9backed No | 12c | 186.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 10c | 176.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.15 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 20c | 176.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a15…aeabbacked Yes | 58c | 173.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 45c | 172.88$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.04 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 15c | 170.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.33 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 38c | 164.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…b245backed Yes | 77c | 160.59$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 160$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 32c | 155.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 153.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 49c | 150.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 29c | 150.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed No | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 149.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.66 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 17c | 132.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…9752backed No | 77c | 129.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 31c | 128.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.82 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 26c | 121.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.08 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…2895backed No | 68c | 116.89$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.15 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 27c | 116.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.01 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 24c | 115.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 19c | 112.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 32c | 112.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.39 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 36c | 110.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 24c | 110.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 18c | 109.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.93 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 20c | 108.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.18 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…7b12backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 13c | 96.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 41c | 95.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…6c43backed Yes | 64c | 92.01$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 57c | 87.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 36c | 84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 37c | 80.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 26c | 75.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 67c | 75.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 22c | 71.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 79c | 70.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 47c | 68.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 66c | 65.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 47c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 19c | 63.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 37c | 62.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 64c | 60.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd39e…88e2backed Yes | 32c | 59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…8b20backed Yes | 35c | 56.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 26c | 53.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 78c | 53.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d75…4f96backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 45c | 49.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 60c | 49.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed No | 42c | 49.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.