Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2e3cab15050f58cb5dfeac8e5ba7d9d0301f1086fbaa9d4d683bcbe2e6cdf07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 3,833$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 1c | 2,317$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,764$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5714…ae10backed Yes | 10c | 1,003$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…acf0backed No | 77c | 499.99$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…7b92backed No | 66c | 379.75$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.97 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 7c | 345.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 14c | 327.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 33c | 301.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.26 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 36c | 299.57$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.83 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 16c | 291.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 272.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 25c | 260.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 250.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 242.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 224.59$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 12c | 200.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 26c | 199.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f2…29c2backed Yes | 16c | 198.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed No | 77c | 175.41$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 174$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 156.54$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 154.4$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…a49ebacked Yes | 34c | 142.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 29c | 121.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 112.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 19c | 108.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed Yes | 24c | 105$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 43c | 100.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…9752backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 16c | 99.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 96.93$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed No | 61c | 82.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 23c | 79.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e2…4ef4backed No | 73c | 68.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 26c | 67.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 64c | 65.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 31c | 51.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 60c | 46.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 31c | 43.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52fc…c095backed Yes | 39c | 35.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…e084backed No | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 39c | 30.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked No | 64c | 26.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 70c | 18.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 60c | 18.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 79c | 17.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.